Not everything is the stuff of high drama, invasion or stealth, blood, bodies, and claims of decisive victory. There are also statements and actions, coming out of government departments, legislative committees, what may be chance remarks, and programs on public radio and television.
In neither the big or little episodes is there usually anything close to final victory or defeat. Life and politics go on, countries tend not to disappear, no matter how dramatic the deaths or the insults.
What is important?
There may not be a clear answer.
Ambiguity is a work of art.
Recent bits of the less dramatic sort in international politics have appeared in the United States, Britain, and Israel.
The larger conflict at issue is the "war against terror." We must admit that "war" and "terror" are both fuzzy concepts, but it is possible to convey some meaning without parsing those terms to death.
One cluster of events appears to be slaps directed against Turkey, most likely as punishment for its government's approach too close to the lines pursued by Iran and Syria.
The ammunition employed is the so-called genocide against Armenians in the context of World War I and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Perhaps 1.5 million Armenians died as a result of forced expulsions, starvation and other brutality.
Until now, the governments of the United States and Israel have stood with the Turks, and have used their powers of persuasion against condemnation or even publicity of Armenian claims. Official reluctance still may be the policy. Reports are that the Obama administration urged members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee to avoid any condemnation of genocide, and the vote in favor was a close 23 to 22. It is still not clear if the measure will reach the full House. The Bush administration succeeded in keeping a similar committee resolution from reaching the House floor in 2007, when it was concerned with the loss of Turkey's cooperation with its policies in Iraq. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/05/world/europe/05armenia.html?scp=2&sq=armenian%20genocide&st=cse
In what looks like a flick in response to a slap, Turkey's prime minister has condemned the committee vote, and recalled the ambassador to the United States for consultation,
If the issue gets any bigger it may delay what appeared to be moves of reconciliation between Turkey and Armenia, including the definition of the border between the two countries.
Israel is making its own tiny contribution to the "confrontation of symbols," which appears to be a few degrees lesser in intensity than "a war of words."
One "salvo" comes from the Anti-Defamation League, not Israeli but a cousin. It announced that it considered the killings to be genocide. Another, closer to the Israeli establishment, is a program on public television that describes the killings as the Armenian Holocaust. The senior broadcaster of Israel broadcasting moderates the program. He has a wide public following, and is known from the somber way in which he condemns evil by the tone of his voice.
Officially the Israeli government is acting like the American government. President Obama wants Congress to stay away from the issue, and President Peres has told the Turkish prime minister that Israel has not changed its position, i.e., that Turkey and Armenia should resolve the issue among themselves in a dialogue. http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/897273.html
Not likely that the Turkish government will be quick to moderate its posture with respect to Iran, Syria, the Palestinians, and Israel. We will never know if less than decisive actions in Washington and Jerusalem lead Turkey to do anything serious to prevent cooperation at the levels where things count in the actions of military and economic bureaucracies.
Another weapon in Israel's arsenal against Turkey is tourism. The southern coast of Turkey is the vacation spot of choice for middle and lower income Israelis and others. Prices are low, the hotels are glitzy and the souvenirs plentiful. Labor unions organize group packages for their members. During the month that includes the Passover holiday, there will be more than 80 charter flights from Tel Aviv to Antalya and other airports in the resort area.
There was more traffic prior to the uptick in tensions, and there may be fewer if the tensions worsen. Promoters are flogging vacations almost as cheap on the coasts of Greece and Bulgaria.
Another front in this conflict via impressions comes from the British government. It is pondering with some seriousness a change in the law relevant to "political" arrest warrants. The prospect of being detained has kept former foreign minister Tzipi Livni, and maybe even Colin Powell from visiting Britain. Officials want to curtail the right of an individual to obtain a writ of arrest from an ordinary judge. One proposal is for a high ranking body, such as the Crown Prosecution Service, to take over responsibility for prosecuting war crimes and other violations of international law. Key figures, including Prime Minister Gordon Brown worry about the damage to Britain's standing due to the capacity of political activists to obtain warrants that limit the visits to Britain of the mighty, including some invited for consultation with leading officials. However, the issue is sensitive, there is an election coming, so deliberations will be delayed. Ms Livni and Mr Powell may postpone their travel plans yet again.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/04/gordon-brown-tzipi-livni-arrest-warrants-change-law
Meaningless tempest is a tea pot?
There are lots of those in international as well as domestic politics.
It is not always easy to know what is going on.
Israelis who may be in the know say that they are not all that concerned about the tempests raging around that incident in Dubai. Lip service, they say, expressed by officials objecting to the use of their country's passports, and even by Dubai personnel who would rather have Israeli business people coming to their little place than Palestinian killers.
None of this is new.
Bava Kama is the Tractate of the Talmud that deals with damages. One of its discussions deals with when it is permitted or forbidden to injure a person or property when the individual to be injured asks that the act be done. The rabbis warn that not all statements are serious. Some are sarcastic, and must not be honored. (Chapter 8, page 93a)
One has to listen and read about the words and deeds of adversaries and others, look beneath the surface, and judge their meaning and significance. It may not be easy.
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Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Tel: +972-2-532-2725
Fax +972-2-582-9144
irashark@gmail.com