The speculation appears widely in the international press. We have seen the films from security cameras placed throughout Dubai, and blow-ups of facial shots of 11 of 17 agents said to be involved in the murder of Hamas figure Mahmoud al-Mabhouh. We have also seen photos of three British immigrants to Israel whose identities may have been stolen. They look passably similar to three of the operatives identified with the deed. The immigrants claim they never left Israel and that they have not lost their British passports.
Israeli officials have neither affirmed nor denied involvement in the assassination.
The British Foreign Office has expressed concern that its passports were compromised. It called in the Israeli ambassador for clarification. The ambassador said he had nothing to provide the British, and that diplomatic conversations are confidential. The British Foreign Minister asserted that he was serious, and not just going through the motions. Which may mean that he is going through the motions.
Critics claim it was a botched job, with the operatives caught by the cameras. Perhaps it was too amateurish to have been done by the Mossad. Yet this is difficult work. There is a long record of failed attempts, including exploding cigars supplied by the CIA that did not kill Fidel Castro, and an innocent waiter in Norway killed by Israelis who thought he had been involved in the murder of the Olympic team in Munich. Dubai may have more closed circuit TV cameras per square kilometer than any other place on earth. Being photographed is inevitable. The operatives knew it, and changed disguises several times. Dubai may have other traits that attract this kind of work. The team got in and out without being stopped, and the target is dead.
al-Mabhouh deserved a place on Israel's list. The Dubai police chief said he was 99 percent sure that the Mossad was responsible, but there are some odd indications that complicate the story, or at least make it interesting. Jordan has extradited two Palestinians to Dubai, who used forged European passports to reach Jordan after the murder. Syria has arrested a Palestinian identified as a member, or defector from Hamas, also suspected of being involved. Fatah and Hamas are trading accusations, with each saying that the other cooperated with the Israelis.
The costs to Israel, if indeed it was responsible:
* The operatives may have burned themselves with respect to international operations. They will retire to something duller, or remain in the organization training others to do similar work as least as well.
* Something is owed to the immigrants whose identities were stolen. It is not beyond imagining that they agreed to the theft (perhaps for the good of Zion) and are playing the role of offended individuals. They might not be able to travel internationally without being picked up on a Dubai warrant. One said that he would like to visit Mom, but he does not dare. Israel might get Dubai to wave its international arrest order in the interest of the war against terrorism. A number of Arab countries have expressed concern, not always in public, for Islamic extremism, and on this occasion they may have done more than speak quietly. The blaming of Israel by Dubai, Britain, and other countries whose passports were forged may be nothing more than a slap at a credible target.Israel is familiar with blame. Add this to the file that also includes the Goldstone report.
* It is not unusual for individuals to change their names when coming to Israel. Israel may provide these immigrants with new identities and passports, and maybe something else for their trouble.
* Hamas is threatening to retaliate in kind, saying that its targets will be quality, and not ordinary Israelis. This is the nth threat of retaliation from Hamas, and together with numerous outstanding threats from Hizbollah and other Palestinian groups may not add much incrementally to concern for the safety of Israeli individuals and institutions, both at home and overseas. Overseas Jewish institutions may also take note, but they, too, have been threatened and cautioned on numerous occasions.
In case you haven't noticed, this is an interesting little country.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Tel: +972-2-532-2725
Fax +972-2-582-9144
irashark@gmail.com