Since the country went back to work after the New Year holiday, the airwaves have been filled with competing speculation about the meetings in New York between Barack Obama, Benyamin Netanyahu, and Mahmoud Abbas. The central question: what, if anything, would Obama wring from Netanyahu and Abbas? Perhaps Bibi would agree to more of a settlement freeze than previously, and Abu Mazan would agree to negotiate with him.
Once the leaders had met, and the American president spoke, the commentary shifted to new terrain. Most likely it will continue in the next editions of the newspapers, and at least a day's worth of talk shows.
Neither national leader gave Obama what he wanted. The president came close to admitting defeat when he spoke about a restraint of building in the settlements rather than a freeze, and did not mention East Jerusalem. The process will continue. Secretary of State Clinton and special envoy Mitchell will return to the region, and press Israelis and Palestinians to be reasonable.
Some commentators are saying that Israel will pay a heavy price, sooner or later, for refusing to bend under the pressure of the American president. Others are ridiculing the American president. How could he have invested so heavily with his time and prestige, and achieved nothing?
The president's record is actually worse than nothing. He made things worse.
Earlier the Palestinians negotiated while construction in the settlements continued. Obama hardened their position by his insistence on a freeze. And he may have spurred a greater rate of construction by Israelis enraged by his demand to freeze construction for Jews in neighborhoods of Jerusalem.
Skeptics will say that Obama's efforts have had no impact. The gaps between what the most generous of the major Israeli parties are willing to offer and what the Palestinians demand are so great as to make agreement unlikely.
So what is the future?
Most likely more of the same. Scenarios moving out from the recent past look something like this:
*If Palestinians in the West Bank continue to refrain from terror, there will be quiet. The IDF will stay out of Palestinian cities and villages, and remove more of the barriers that hinder movement. Individuals will continue to invest in commercial, industrial, and residential properties, and the West Bank economy will outshine stagnation in Gaza.
*Israeli leftists will join the international chorus that cries foul. Some are already saying that if Israel does not agree to a two-state solution, the world will insist on a one state solution with full rights for everyone between the Jordan and the Mediterranean. That will produce another Middle East country beholden to its Muslim majority, and the end of Israel.
*The Israeli center and right will ignore those calls for national suicide. Aside from occasional lip service, the world will leave Israel and the Palestinians to the Israelis and Palestinians.
*If Palestinians tire of prosperity without the formal structure of their own state, and begin another round of violence, Israel will respond with violence. If the recent past repeats itself, there will be rubble where there is now construction. The United Nations and organizations claiming to be concerned with human rights will accuse Israel of violating their norms.
Change can happen. It is not wise, however, to plan for a major departure that rests on speculation, often by individuals with ideological commitments. Best to assume that the recent past is the best guide to the near future. The distant future will depend on an unknown variety of local, regional, and world wide events that are impossible to take into account for meaningful planning.
And what about President Obama?
His performance in the Middle East has been somewhere between unimpressive and embarrassing. It bears the marks of a new leader, with fresh advisors, who charged into foreign cultures with conceptions developed in their own country.
Americans should hope that he does better at home, and elsewhere in the world where he aspires to make his mark.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University
Jerusalem, Israel
Tel: +972-2-532-2725
email: msira@mscc.huji.ac.il