Several friends have cautioned me that public opinion in America is turning against Israel, and public opinion in Europe is more intense in its opposition.
The reasons cited are the ugly pictures coming out of Gaza, as well as the perception that President Obama is upping the pressure against Israeli stubbornness with respect to concessions for the Palestinians.
If you actually read my letters, you should have noticed that I judged Obama's speech to be at least as harsh toward the Arabs as toward Israel. Nonetheless, public opinion polls show a strong tendency among Israelis to perceive animosity. Perhaps it is Jewish nerves, overly suspicious about an escalation of threat. It is incorrect to conclude that George W. Bush and Condoleezza Rice never criticized Israel. I recall them saying what Obama said about the need to stop settlement growth.
President Obama said that he intends more direct involvement in seeking peace between Israel and the Palestinians. President George W. Bush also said that. Maybe Obama's comments will prove to be as ineffectual as Bush's. Currently, however, a lot of Israelis feel themselves under siege.
Teddy Roosevelt described the presidency as a bully pulpit. It may be especially powerful as a leader of opinion when directed against a foreign target. On domestic issues there is more information, as well as sharper opinions and numerous interest groups. President Obama may be moving the public against Israel, while not getting Americans to line up the way he would like on things closer to home.
My friends do not have to caution me about adverse public opinion in America and Europe. The news is prominent here. It may have something to do with the bunker mentality. It helps to explain the results of the most recent election, and why there is a prime minister and foreign minister posturing as they are against outside pressure.
Some of my correspondents have even written about the end of Israel if it does not behave better. Do they think Israelis will go back to Cairo, Dusseldorf or Fall River? What should happen to the granddaughter of a family from Kishinev married to the grandson of a family from Baghdad?
Israelis are tired of hearing only words in behalf of their defense from the United States and other western powers. No great power helped when the Nazis murdered and the Arabs persecuted. The children and grandchildren of those Jews have heard soothing words and demands for restraint in response to continued violence against them, and severe criticism for disproportionate responses. I do not recall any polls asking Israelis if they believe the commitments to their defense expressed by one American president after another. I have seen data indicating that substantial numbers of Israelis feel that the American administration is tilted against them, and that they must rely on themselves.
It is wise to consider public opinions in countries that are important to one's own. Just as Israelis should consider public opinion in Europe and North America, so should Europeans and Americans consider public opinion in Israel. The power of governments is not equal, but it is not a zero sum game.
Israel's sense of being the world's target, reinforced by persistent criticism from outside, had something to do with the onslaught against Gaza. Critics discount the seven years of rocket attacks on Israeli civilians, not dealt with by words from the west or moderate responses from Israel. Criticism of Israel's continued blockade pays too little attention to continued pledges of its destruction by Hamas, the holding of an Israeli prisoner, who may be alive but not visited by any outsider in three years of captivity, and the likelihood that any construction supplies allowed in will be used not so much to rebuild housing as to construct fortifications.
It is not worth pondering what President Obama really meant by his Cairo speech. The text demanded a lot from the Palestinians and other Arabs as well as from the Israelis. It is also not be worth pondering what Prime Minister Netanyahu really meant by his Bar Ilan speech, which was at least partly responsive to Obama's concerns. Subsequent actions will be more useful in gauging their intentions.
Currently both leaders may be paying more attention to the streets of Iran than what either has said about the other. Americans and Israelis both suffer from an arrogant certainty that they are close to the center of world history. Events elsewhere may dwarf the importance of their latest dispute.
Good relations between the governments are important to both sides. Each should be alert to the limitations of its power, and be careful not to excite the others population.
I welcome comments sent to my e-mail address, below.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University
Jerusalem, Israel
Tel: +972-2-532-2725
email: msira@mscc.huji.ac.il