In the tension building between the Obama administration and Israel on the subject of settlements, it is appropriate to step back and assess their importance in the larger issues of Israel and Palestine, regional and world peace.
If the settlements are among the stumbling blocks to an accord between Israel and its neighbors, and what that may mean for wider aspirations, they are in the shadow of Hamas and other nay sayers to the idea of Israel.
It's radical Islam, stupid!
It is not only radical Islam, but that is the hardest nut in the context of its ascendance in Palestine and elsewhere. Hamas is firmly in control of Gaza, and would take over the West Bank in short order if it was not for protection given to the Abbas government by Israeli security forces.
Freshly trained and equipped Palestinian security forces bloodied a cluster of Hamas operatives a few days ago, but it is too early to conclude that the Abbas government is willing or able to make a prolonged defense against those who carry the flag of Islam. The recent operation looks like a demonstration for the sake of the Obama administration. Remember when Fatah was still in control of Gaza and it wanted to make a show of dealing with the tunnels used for smuggling weapons from the Sinai. Its police invited the cameras to photograph them shoveling a bit of sand into one of the tunnel entrances. It would have been more persuasive if they had destroyed the tunnel with explosives.
The problem is not only intense Muslims. Christian Arabs never have been enthusiastic about Israel's existence. Intellectuals in the non-religious universities of Egypt and Jordan are noted for their strident opposition to normalizing relations. They are role models for colleagues in Britain, the United States, and elsewhere who think that a boycott of Israel would turn the Middle East into a decent place.
The settlements took root 40 years ago in the context of Arab rejection of Israel. They have grown as efforts at reaching an accord have failed, most notably the Oslo process of 1993 and the Barak-Arafat-Clinton efforts of 2000. An article in the New York Times estimates that there are 300,000 Jewish settlers in the West Bank, except for East Jerusalem.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/02/world/middleeast/02mideast.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
Most of them are in sizable communities like Maale Adumim, Gush Etzion, Efrat, Beitar Ilite, Modiin Ilite, and Ariel. Presumably it was these areas, as well as Jewish neighborhoods of East Jerusalem (another 180,000) that the Bush administration had in mind when it said that any agreement would take account of demographic changes since 1967.
No one should expect to move half a million Israelis.
It has been common for Arabs and their friends to pressure Israelis by saying that if they do not take advantage of a window of opportunity, Arab violence will return in force. The mirror of that is that settlements have continued to grow when Arabs have not taken advantage of a window of opportunity.
Most settlers are middle class, secular Israelis interested in roomy apartments within commuting distance of the cities. Intense ideologues are well placed among the elected officials of West Bank localities and regional councils. They have the support of Israelis who vote for political parties that identify themselves with Religious Zionism or secular nationalism. Ultra-Orthodox Jews were less inclined to territorial issues, but that has changed as with the development of Beitar Ilit and Modi'in Ilit as ultra-Orthodox communities.
The political parties likely to support settlers currently have 64 members in the 120 member Knesset, and form the hard core of the Netanyahu government.
You want democracy in the Middle East? Israel is the only country that is credibly democratic, and that is what its most recent election produced.
Overseas Jews, especially the Orthodox, are prominent in supplying settlements with new immigrants and financial support. Purchases of buildings in Arab neighborhoods of East Jerusalem rely on the money of overseas Orthodox millionaires.
The most important recent event in the history of settlement was the removal of some 6,700 individuals from Gaza in 2005. The Arab response of continued rocket fire culminating in Israel's military operation of January, 2009, is prominent in the narrative against removals from the West Bank.
Boys and girls, young men and women, who have grown up in the settlements and studied in the academies of nationalist rabbis scuffle with police and soldiers sent to remove illegal settlements, and lay down at key intersections in Israeli cities when the leadership calls for a demonstration. The most extreme attack Arabs and uproot Arab crops, sometimes in immediate retaliation against Arab attacks on Jews.
However I think about the provocations of Jewish extremists, they are minor in comparison to what the world is suffering from Muslim extremists.
Young men who identify themselves as Religious Zionists provide a disproportionate component of elite IDF units and young officers. They also give pause to senior officers charged with planning any action against the settlers.
In short, more than 40 years since the 1967 war have produced intense activists, backed by a sizable group of sympathizers who mobilize in response to Arab violence or a proposal to remove settlements. They have shown themselves able to resist centrist governments, most recently that of Ehud Olmert, and currently find themselves with a friendly government.
The Netanyahu government may reach an accommodation with the American administration. Israelis hope that statements about no building in the West Bank are opening gambits, that may be replaced by an agreement, perhaps implicit, that accepts limited growth of existing communities.
Several flash points on the horizon may upset any optimistic projection. Previous governments developed a plan to link Maale Adumim with Jerusalem. Arabs say this will end any possibility of a continuous Arab state from the north to the south of the West Bank. Also problematic are Jewish purchases of land and buildings in Arab areas of East Jerusalem, perceived as more harmful than Arab purchases in Jewish areas of Jerusalem.
Stopping the growth of settlements, and removing some of them, may produce a moment of good of good feeling among those who think of themselves as fair minded and wise in Washington and elsewhere. It will not quiet Iraq, Afghanistan, or Pakistan, or stop Iran's nuclear program.
If history is any guide, the most likely problem for Obama will be the Palestinians. Nothing on offer may satisfy those said to be moderates currently being propped up in the West Bank. They are still talking about the rights of refugees to return home. Hamas may win the election promoted by American enthusiasts of democracy. A spectacular act of violence may come from Palestinians or Hizbollah, and provoke an Israeli response that further postpones any chance of an accord.
I welcome comments sent to my e-mail address, below.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University
Jerusalem, Israel
Tel: +972-2-532-2725
email: msira@mscc.huji.ac.il