The election occurred on February 10th and the results were known on the 11th.
Remember that Likud won fewer seats than Kadima, but the president as well as much of the population concluded that Likud would have a better chance of putting together a coalition that would get the support of a Knesset majority. So far, agreements have been reached with Israel Beitenu, Labor, SHAS, and Jewish Home. Together with Likud, they amount to 69 seats, a clear majority in the 120 seat Knesset. Negotiations continue with Torah Judaism and National Unity.
Some Labor Members of Knesset (MKs) may be angry enough with party leader Ehud Barak for joining with Netanyahu that they will not support the coalition. Some members of Likud may be angry enough with Bibi for giving away prized appointments that their support will be tepid. Individual Likud MKs may work subtly or not so subtly to undermine Bib in the hopes of producing an early election.
Coalition arithmetic begins with the number of Knesset seats held by each potential partner, and the goodies that the prime minister designate can trade for support. Prominent among these are positions as ministers and chairs of Knesset committee, commitments for expenditures on favored items, and support for other policy issues.
The election results produced the following array of likely coalition partners:
Likud: 27 seats
Israel Beitenu: 15
Labor: 13
SHAS: 11
Torah Judaism: 5
National Unity: 4
Jewish Home: 3
It is conventional to rank the ministries by prestige. There is some dispute at the margins, but the rankings look more or less like the following. (The modest rankings of Health and Education reflect the importance of the Finance Ministry in setting expenditures, salaries, and service levels, the weight of Health Maintenance Organizations and teachers' unions, and the autonomy of higher education.)
There are opportunities for dividing ministries to produce even more appointments, and to appoint deputy ministers and ministers without portfolio with vague or non-existent responsibilities.
The ministries likely to exist in Netanyahu's government, clustered by levels of prestige, are:
Group I
Prime Minister
Defense
Finance
Foreign Affairs
Group II
Justice
Interior
Industry and Trade
Public Security
Transportation
Construction and Housing
Group III
Education
Health
Communications
Agriculture
Group IV
Labor
Welfare
Immigrant Absorption
Infrastructure
Culture
Tourism
Science
Environmental Protection
Religions
Minorities
Development of the Negev and Galilee
Minister in the Office of the Prime Minister (This is an extra, which may carry few if any significant duties.)
It has become conventional to appoint a Deputy Prime Minister. The title of Deputy Prime Minister carries prestige, and few if any duties, except to act as the prime minister when the prime minister is out of the country or otherwise indisposed, and to assume the office upon death or resignation until the Knesset acts otherwise. The designation may come along with a ministerial appointment, or can be an extra if there aren't enough ministries to meet the demand.
Bibi's challenge was to win the support of several middle-sized or small parties, in order to reach a number of MKs as great as possible more than 60. Each potential partner knew its importance, and demanded appointments and other benefits.
Parties and ministries as of now, with summary prestige indications:
Labor: Defense, Industry and Trade, Agriculture, Welfare, Minorities.
(That is, 1 Group I; 1 Group II, 1 Group III, 2 Group IV)
Israel Beitenu: Foreign Affairs, Domestic Security, Infrastructure, Tourism, Immigrant Absorption.
(1 Group I, 1 Group II, 3 Group IV)
SHAS: Interior, Construction and Housing, Religions. and minister in the prime minister's office
(2 Group II, 2 Group IV)
Jewish Home: Science
(1 Group IV)
As of now, what is left for Likud, along with the position of prime minister is:
Finance, Justice, Transportation, Education, Health, Communications, Tourism, Environmental Protection, Culture, Sport, Minorities, Development of the Negev and Galilee
(2 Group I, 1 Group II, 3 Group III, 6 Group IV)
There are also appointments as heads of Knesset Committees. Here, too, there are differences in prestige, the leading ones being Foreign Affairs and Defense, Finance, Constitution Law and Justice, Knesset Committee, and State Audit. There are also sub-committees, some of which have greater prestige than full committees. There are traditions of appointing members of the opposition as chairs of certain committees. A prominent example is the Committee on States Audit, which focuses on the Office of the State Comptroller and its criticism of governmental bodies.
Beside ministerial appointments, the achievements of the coalition partners include:
Israel Beitenu received the chair of the Knesset Committee of Constitution Law and Judiciary, a representative on the committee to appoint judges, and a commitment to find a solution for the problem of marriages involving individuals not recognized as Jewish by the Rabbinate.
SHAS received a commitment to increase family allowances, i.e. monthly payments to families according to the number of children under the age of 18.
Labor received a period of rotation as chair of the Knesset Committee on Foreign Relations and Defense, and a commitment to increase old age pensions.
Jewish Home received a period of rotation as chairs of Knesset Committees of Education, and Children's Rights
Promised increases in family allowances and old age pensions, if delivered, will be expensive. Agreements to both required Netanyahu to slip aside from his often touted claim as being the finance minister in an earlier government who saved the economy by reducing welfare entitlements. It will also crimp his current promise to reduce taxes, already in trouble due to a reduction in tax collections as a result of the economic recession. Clips of Netanyahu criticizing the Olmert government for the expense of 25 ministers and deputy ministers appear along with prospects that his government will have 33.
There is a rough equivalence between the number of appointments received by each party and the number of seats won in the election. What will complicate Netanyahu's work among Likud members is the scarcity of key appointments left unfilled, and the number of Likud MKs who think themselves especially worthy. Some of these were recruited to Likud by Netanyahu shortly before the election, seemingly with indications that they would be important members of his government. Netanyahu may also want to keep for himself the most prized of the as yet unfilled positions: minister of finance.
The Likud MKs likely to be expecting prized appointments are:
Silvan Shalom, prominent MK and former minister of Finance, and Foreign Affairs, and a rival of Netanyahu for party leadership
Moshe Ayalon, former Commander of the IDF, and one of Bibi's recruits to Likud's list
Benny Begin, son of the former prime minister, a politician in his own right, a former MK and minister, and one of Bibi's recruits to Likud's list
Limor Levnat, prominent MK and former minister, and the highest ranking woman among Likud MKs
Don Meridor, former minister of finance and justice, and one of Bibi's recruits to Likud's list
Yosi Peled, retired general and prominent media commentator, and one of Bibi's recruits to Likud's list
Miri Regev, one of Bibi's recruits to Likud's list, and a former spokeswoman of the IDF who came to prominence during the 2006 Lebanon war
Ruby Rivlin former chair of the Knesset, destined for that position again
Yuval Shteinitz prominent MK
Gilad Ardon prominent MK
Michael Eitan prominent MK
Israel Katz prominent MK
Gidon Saar prominent MK
Still hanging are Torah Judaism and National Unity. Together they would provide nine additional seats to the coalition, as well as problems. Torah Judaism would dig in its heels against provisions to ease the process of conversion to Judaism, and add to SHAS's adamant posture against anything that facilitated the marriage of Jews to non-Jews, and even civil marriage for non-Jews. Israel Beitenu depends on the support of Russian speaking immigrants, where these items are high priority.
National unity might fit well with Israel Beitenu on political negotiations with Palestinians and the rights and responsibilities of Israel's Arab citizens, but it would cause significant problems on these issues for Labor.
Bibi is likely to present his government for Knesset approval within a few days. Israeli law provides that it may serve a bit longer than four years. It has been a while since any government has served that long, and it is too early to bet on the life span of this one.
I welcome comments sent to my e-mail address, below.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University
Jerusalem, Israel
Tel: +972-2-532-2725
email: msira@mscc.huji.ac.il