Marathon efforts to reach an agreement on freeing the Israeli prisoner Gilad Schalit have failed. Israelis report that Hamas hardened its conditions and withdrew concessions they accepted earlier. Perhaps the campaign mounted by the Schalit family backfired. The indications of wide support among Israelis for freeing prisoners "with blood on their hands" may have led Hamas to insist on its demands, or even increase them. Hamas denies those charges and blames Israel for the failure of negotiations. Schalit's father blames Olmert.
Benyamin Netanyahu has avoided comment about the prisoner exchange, but members of his coalition abuilding have spoken out forcefully against freeing a large number of murderers in exchange for one soldier.
The moral issues are well known, and have been debated to exhaustion.
Some convicted killers will revert to terror if released. The results may be more Israeli deaths due to one soldier freed.
Tell that to the family campaigning to pay whatever is necessary to release their son before he dies or disappears, or is broken by continued captivity. They find support among Israelis who feel that their government must do all it can to return home the soldiers sent into combat.
Israel has a long history of paying a heavy price for its soldiers or their bodies. The government paid in live terrorists for a retired military officer who went bad and was captured while illegally in Lebanon to acquire illegal drugs for sale in Israel. Among the concerns in his case was the fear that he would reveal secrets if not ransomed.
The tradition is older than the modern state. Throughout the Middle Ages, Jewish communities collected resources from their members to buy the release of individuals seized by pirates or bandits.
Occasionally an heroic figure says something like, "No negotiations with terrorists." Last night we heard a distinguished professor say that Israel must plan better so that it achieves more in its military campaigns and subsequent negotiations. It should devise clear criteria for how many and what kinds of prisoners may be exchanged for live Israelis or dead bodies. It should pass a law against freeing killers in a way that is disproportionate to the benefits received.
All that would be nice if it were possible. The best laid plans and the clearest laws encounter conditions created by opponents. Those holding Schalit, and those who have held soldiers or bodies in Lebanon may not be as powerful or as well connected as Israel, but they are strong enough to cause a departure from plans and criteria meant to tie the hands of a future government.
The campaign of the Schalit family attracted the support of more than 60 percent of the population, according to recent polls. A demonstration mounted by the families of terror victims, who did not want to release their killers, attracted a small fraction of those who participated in the Schalit demonstrations.
Schalit forces have been strong enough to cause a large number of politicians to say that Israel should "pay a heavy price" for the release of the soldier. Not many of them have been willing to say, "pay any price necessary."
Netanyahu is having trouble putting together a government of small parties, each of which is demanding a great deal as if all depended on it. Even if he succeeds, he may have as few as 61 members of the 120 members Knesset on his side, along with internal problems. He may not be able produce a solution for Schalit, or anything else on the country's agenda.
*Avigdor Lieberman, the designated foreign minister, is under investigation by the police. The Attorney General told Netanyahu that there is no legal reason not to make the appointment for the time being, but that may change. An officer speaking for the police says that Lieberman's continuing actions raise suspicion of money laundering and bribery. Investigations are going forward, and will include interviews with Lieberman under warning: "Anything you say may be used against you."
*Ultra-Orthodox members of the coalition are making expensive demands for welfare, housing and education. Netanyahu prizes his reputation for financial management, but will have to pay if he wants them in his government.
*Lieberman and the ultra-Orthodox will squabble over issues of conversion to Judaism, intermarriage, and the sale of non-kosher meat.
*Likud members are chafing at the appointments and other concessions that Netanyahu has given to smaller parties. They may embarrass him by something other than firm support for his proposals, and "unavoidable absences" from crucial votes.
We are hearing from Americans and Europeans close to their governments that Israel's coalition of "right wing extremists" will add to the country's isolation.
Netanyahu asked President Shimon Peres to persuade Kadima and Labor to enter a government of national unity.
Tzipi Livni and Ehud Barak looked at their potential partners, and answered, "No thanks." It is better to watch Bibi twist in the winds caused by a bare majority and internal problems, and wait for the next election.
Our immediate future will be uncertain and unpleasant, but not as uncertain and unpleasant as our adversaries.
Among their problems is the rubble in Gaza. Rebuilding will depend on the flow of supplies, and those may wait until Hamas agrees to free Schalit on terms acceptable to the Israeli government.
An optimist will notice that the grass is not as green across the street.
I welcome comments to my e-mail address below.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University
Jerusalem, Israel
Tel: +972-2-532-2725
email: msira@mscc.huji.ac.il