Bibi has not announced the details of his new government. He is keeping himself as well as the rest of us on the edge of our chairs. Commentators are saying that he is not happy with what it coming down. Neither are a lot of ordinary folks.
There are parallels with the experiences of our American friends, just exiting from eight years with George Bush and Dick Cheney, while religious fundamentalists led the cheers.
When you think of Bush think of Bibi. Both talk in simple and attractive sentences, perhaps too simple to be real.
When you think of Cheney think of Avigdor Lieberman: powers not too far from the throne, viewed with fear and trembling. Lieberman may be a foreign minister persona non grata in Egypt on account of a recent comment that Husni Mubarak took as a personal insult. Egypt may not look like much other than crowds and poverty from New York and Los Angeles, but here it is weightier. Lieberman's trips to Europe and the US will not be festive. He's a settler living in the occupied territories, who says unpleasant things about Israeli Arabs usually protected by the umbrella of political correctness. Lieberman is also the subject of an ongoing police investigation about slippery finances, and he is insisting on a hand in the selection of ministers who will deal with the judiciary and police.
When you think of religious fundamentalism, think SHAS. It will be the third largest party in Bibi's coalition. It demands financial support of large families and religious academies, plus opposition to homosexuality, intermarriage, and the sale of pork. SHAS's clashes with Lieberman on intermarriage and pork, as well as the police inquiry into Lieberman should give Bibi some concern.
At least three of the parties Bibi wants in his coalition are demanding control of the Housing Ministry. SHAS wants to build apartments for young Sephardi ultra-Orthodox couples, Torah Judaism wants to build apartments for young Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox couples, and National Unity wants to build in the occupied territories.
Bibi cannot say "No" to many parties and still have a coalition that will win the support required in the Knesset. And the more he offers ministerial seats and policy concessions to the smaller parties he needs to join the coalition, the more he is angering members of his own party. He recruited distinguished individuals to run on Likud's ticket. Now he will leave some of them with no rewards, and also shut out veteran Likud Knesset members who want goodies he is giving to others.
Meanwhile, our former president will be indicted on charges of rape and sexual harassment.
It has taken a couple of years for the legal authorities to reach this decision. The public is not privy to all the details, but we hear that prosecutors are concerned about the gap of years between the alleged incidents and the complaints, as well as the capacity of those complaining to stand up to cross examination. Some of the women who initiated complaints continued to work for Katsav, and maintained cordial relationships with him, after the incidents are said to have occurred. One of the women tried blackmail. The prosecutors are not including her case in the ticket.
Katsav may turn out to be his own worst enemy. He lost his temper at a press conference, shown in a clip that has played time and again. Prominent among his defenders is a brother, whose own assertions are stained by a charge against him of sexual harassment.
Another issue straining our emotions is Gilad Shalit, the Israeli corporal seized two and one-half years ago and held in Gaza without benefit of any visits by the Red Cross or Red Crescent, and certainly not by the Magan David Adom (Red Star of David). His parents and grandfather are camped out across the street from the prime minister's residence, hoping to pressure the present government into concessions during its last days that might obtain Gilad's release. The family is hosting a continuing line of dignitaries and ordinary citizens who support its campaign. Close by is another demonstration, mounted by family members of individuals killed by terrorists, who oppose freeing murderers in order to obtain Shalit's release. Yet some of those willing to pay the price of releasing Shalit are other family members of terror victims.
It is doubtful that there will be a neat, or early resolution for any of these issues.
If Bibi succeeds in forming a government, it will have a thin cushion above an absolute majority of the Knesset. The process of creating his coalition is angering Knesset members of his own party. It may be they who make the life of his government nasty, brutish, and short.
No one should expect Moshe Katsav's trial to finish is less than a year. Pro- and anti-Katsavniks are filling the media with their stories of flawed witnesses and a flawed ex-president. Israel has no juries. The initial trial will be before three judges. Their professionalism may protect them from some of the emotions, but senior justices are already complaining about trying in court a case tried time and again in public.
The recent destruction of Gaza, and Israel's continue blockade may be appropriate or excessive punishment for rocket attacks, but it has not produced the freedom of one Israeli captive. Neither has it stopped the rocket attacks. Gazans as a whole will continue to suffer for what some of them continue to do. And Shalit may continue to suffer the misfortune of being caught in a conflict larger than him.
I welcome comments sent to my e-mail address, below.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University
Jerusalem, Israel
Tel: +972-2-532-2725
email: msira@mscc.huji.ac.il