The election results are not final. There are still the absentee ballots to be counted. In Israel these are almost entirely ballots of soldiers who voted on their bases. Except for them, and Israelis overseas on official business, there are virtually no provisions for absentee ballots. (Those away from home, but in Israel, get free round trip bus tickets to their polling place.)

The soldiers may move the results one or two seats, but the basic picture is likely to be very similar to the following:

Kadima 28
Likud 27
Israel Beitenu 15
Labor 13
Meretz 3
SHAS 11
Torah Judaism 5
JewishHome 3
National Unity 4
Ram-Tal 4
Hadash 4
Balad 3

Party leaders are feeling one another out as to potential coalition partners. The first step--once the results are final--is for the party heads to meet with President Peres and advise him as to their inclinations, and to say party has the best chance to form a coalition that will win approval of the Knesset majority. The president has discretion to invite the leader of the most likely party to try his or her luck. In the past, that has been the leader of the party with the most seats. This time, the arithmetic, and the president's calculations of who can do what may produce a different leader.

The left has been weakened, as shown by the dismal peformance of Labor and Meretz. The right has done well, as shown by Likud, Israel Beitenu, SHAS, Torah Judaism, Jewish Home, and National Unity. Together, these parties have 65 seats, and that looks like a Likud-led coalition.

However, Israel Beitenu and SHAS may not fit well together. The spiritual leader of SHAS said that voting for Israel Beitenu was like voting for the devil. Israel Beitenu, in the eyes of SHAS, stands for the sale of pork and the legalization of civil marriage.

The most obvious coalition partners of Kadima are Labor and Meretz. Sad for them, that amounts to only 44 seats.

There is a coalition that secular moderates are dreaming about: Kadima, Likud, and Labor, amounting to 68 seat. That can happen, if the egos and the party colleagues of Tzipi Livni and Benyamin Netanyahu can agree on who would be the prime minister. Or, if they agree on rotating the leadership, who would get the job for the first two years.

At the same time that party leaders discuss the outline of a coalition, they also negotiate which party gets which ministries. These are jobs for the boys and girls, and are likely to be just as testy as what the coalition will stand for in terms of peace, economic programs, and social welfare.

Among the things that commentators are talking about is the mild or harder slap in the face that the voters have given to Americans, Israelis, and Europeans who have been promoting peace between Israel and the Palestinians. A common Israeli view is that Israel has tried everything reasonable. Fatah's Mahmoud Abbas is too weak, too skitish, and without nearly enough support at home to make any kind of agreement. The folks of Hamas in control of Gaza are busy declaring victory in the recent war, and continuing their proclamations that Israel must disappear.

The only advocates of continuing a peace process similar to what is desired by Americans, Europeans, and some Israelis are Knesset members of Kadima, Labor, and Meretz, and not all those are enthusiastic about the prospect.

The hard work as just begun. It will still be going in two weeks when we return from overseas, and may continue for a month or more after that.

I welcome comments sent to my e-mail address below.

Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University
Jerusalem, Israel
Tel: +972-2-532-2725
email: msira@mscc.huji.ac.il