Every once in a while I receive a mass e-mailing from the Palestine Center for Public Opinion. The latest came on February 4th, and reflects interviews conducted during the week beginning January 25, i.e., after the IDF finished most of its work in Gaza.
Those wanting to do their own analysis should go to
http://www.pcpo.ps/polls.htm
Like all public opinion polls, this one carries no obvious map toward the future. The organization that does the work seems to meet professional standards, but the population is a difficult one. One suspects that many of them do not trust people who come asking opinions. The culture puts a greater premium on being acceptable than being truthful. Hamas and others can get tough with individuals who express views they see as unacceptable.
Palestinian polls in the run up to the 2006 election predicted a victory for Fatah. Hamas won. Assessments were that while Fatah was still in control, Palestinians were not inclined to say out loud, to someone from outside the family, that they would vote for Hamas.
Almost all the polls that I have seen from this organization in recent years have presented a picture of economic and personal depression. This one is no different. Among the findings:
61 % said they were pessimistic about the future
72 % thought the general economic situation in the Palestinian territories was bad
82% are worried about their family's livelihood
41 % are mainly concerned about security
64 % think peace will be unlikely when their children reach their own current age
When asked about the recent Gaza operation,
34 % said that Hamas won the war
54 % think that nobody won the war
44 % believe that Hamas' power has increased after the war
54 % hold Israel responsible for the war
39 % favor continued firing of rockets toward Israel
In regard to the parties and leaders of Palestine and elsewhere
51 % think Hamas is leading in the wrong direction
46 % think Fatah is leading in the wrong direction
50 % have an unfavorable opinion of Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas
45 % have an unfavorable opinion of Hamas Gaza leader Ismael Haniyyeh
50 % have an unfavorable opinion of Hamas leader Khaled Mishal, resident in Damascus
58 % have an unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama
Conclusions are risky, but pessimism seems more appropriate than optimism.
If anyone has a chance of pushing Palestinians and Israelis together, it is probably Barack Obama and his team. Yet along with the problems he has at home, the situation on the ground is more difficult than last year. The Palestinians are not a happy family, and are unlikely to be on the same page when foreign peacemakers come to call. This survey suggests that Obama also has a personal problem. A majority of the Palestinians do not have a favorable opinion of him.
The survey does not probe Palestinian concerns about Obama. Many of them may think he is committed to helping the Israelis at their expense, just as many Israelis fear that he is committed to helping the Palestinians at Israel's expense.
It does not sound like one of those parties where the White House couple would enjoy a dance..
I welcome comments sent to my e-mail address, below.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Dept of Political Science
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
msira@mscc.huji.ac.il
Tel: +972-2-532-2725
Fax: +972-2-582-9144