Welcome to the Middle East, Mr. Mitchell, and good luck in behalf of President Obama's commitment to work aggressively to bring peace to two states, Israel and Palestine.
Your reception has not been pleasant.
It began when Hamas, or a group that Hamas chose not to control, killed an Israeli soldier. Soon after, the Israeli air force reported that it liquidated one of the men involved in the killing. Later it bombed tunnels between Egypt and Gaza. Each of the political triumvirate that decides on such things (Olmert, Barak, and Livni) has promised more retaliation. Expectations are that Hamas or its allies will use some of the remaining rockets to retaliate against Israel.
Mitchell and others will be working to quiet Gaza and its surroundings, as well as to assure an end to the smuggling of munitions into the area. That will not easy. They come from Iran and move in various ways through the Sinai and into Gaza. The Bedouin of the desert do much of the transporting. They are chronically at odds with Egyptian authorities. Bedouin are also involved in moving drugs, European prostitutes, and African migrants into Israel.
Important in American and European aspirations for Palestine is the "moderate" regime of Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah party. One can quarrel as to how moderate they really are. Descendants of Yassir Arafat's PLO, they have formally renounced terror, but not all of their factions have signed on to the renunciation. Abbas has negotiated with Israel, but insists that Israel is totally at fault for Palestinian suffering. He has demanded the non-starters of withdrawal to the 1967 borders, and rights for the refugees of 1948, as well as (what may be possible) a state with its capital in Jerusalem. Abbas is currently leading the charge to arraign Israel on war crime violations for its actions in Gaza, without a concern for the war crimes of Palestinian attacks on Israeli civilians.
Abbas and his regime are known more for weakness, incompetence, corruption, and lack of political support among Palestinians than for any more attractive traits. Anyone thinking it capable of taking over Gaza must deal with its failure to hold off Hamas in a short but bloody encounter that peaked in 2007.
Someone attempting a sober assessment of the Fatah establishment may wonder if the topic is governance or comic opera.
Important in Hamas' victory in the most recent Palestinian national election was a feeling widespread among voters that corruption prevails in ranks of Fatah and among its elected officials. http://www.mepc.org/journal_vol12/0509_denoeux.asp
Among the players is Muhammad Dahlan. He served as Fatah's head of security in Gaza, but managed to be away from Gaza during fighting between Fatah and Hamas. Reports are that he made himself rich by monopolies in the importing of oil and cement, and diverted 40 percent of import taxes at one crossing into Gaza into his personal account. He purchased a hotel on the beach, and made himself unpopular by living in one of Gaza's largest and most opulent homes.
At various times Dahlan was the target of a conventional accusation used by rivals in the regime (collaborating with Israel), and was also involved in the initiation of intrigues against others. He exposed payments of $11.5 million to Yassir Arafat's wife, and reported that the family of Ahmed Qureia (former prime minister of the Palestine National Authority and recently one of the principal negotiators with Israel) was heavily involved in the sale of cement meant for Palestine to Israel for construction of housing in the West Bank and the security barrier. Palestinians of all stripes repeatedly condemn the housing and barrier as violations of agreements and Israeli schemes to undermine the peace process. http://www.geocities.com/lawrenceofcyberia/palbios/pa05000.html
Adding to the Palestinian opera were: http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1206632349492&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter
*One of Abbas' personal aides caught trying to smuggle 3,000 cell phones into the West Bank
*Qureia's deposit of $3 million of Authority funds into his private bank account
*Involvement of Palestinian physicians, pharmacists and officials of the Authority's Health Ministry in the smuggling of expired medicines, said to have caused the deaths of numerous patients
I*nvestment of $600 million in a Jordanian tourist project by Arafat's financial advisor, who is said to have close ties to Abbas and his colleagues
Another welcoming message for George Mitchell was arranged by the Israeli organization, Peace Now. It produced a report about the expansion of Israeli housing in the West Bank, in apparent violation of the commitments made to the United States and others by the Olmert government.
Settler representatives were quick to charge Peace Now with inaccuracies.
Assuming that construction continues, perhaps at a rate lesser or greater than claimed by Peace Now, the question to be asked is, "Even if construction is not what officials promised, does it represent a greater problem than other factors that have derailed the peace process?" Prominent among them are the rocket attacks from Gaza that followed the withdrawal of Jewish settlements from that area, and the lack of any sign that the Abbas regime is prepared to adjust its demands from the conventional package that have proved to be non-starters.
Good luck, Mr. Mitchell. I do hope that you can repeat your success in Northern Ireland. The key to your aspiration, in my view, is to make the Palestinian Authority more unified, with key officials less concerned with personal profit, more concerned with serving the people, and making demands flexible enough to attract the sizable number of Israelis who have long aspired to a reasonable deal.
I am not confident that you or anyone else is up to the tasks.
I welcome comments sent to my e-mail address below.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Dept of Political Science
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
msira@mscc.huji.ac.il
Tel: +972-2-532-2725
Fax: +972-2-582-9144