As I read the flood of articles devoted to President Barack Obama's initial activities, I am impressed that a new day has dawned. I am also confident that the sky is not falling.
By that I mean that he has signaled changes in some highly symbolic issues. However, he can do nothing with a "stroke of the pen." As JFK once said, "There is always a schmuck who doesn't get the message."
Laws passed by a legislature, and orders signed by a chief executive do not enforce themselves. They depend on the cooperation of professionals in one or more government offices, and most likely individuals in the private sector. In a complex system like the United States, many federal actions also depend on 50 state governments, plus thousands of local authorities and quasi-governmental organizations.
Political scientists who study what is called "implementation" find numerous cases when expectations about laws or executive orders fail to materialize in small or large measure. It may not be the isolated schmuck who does not get the message, but many individuals in key positions who read central government decisions in their own way, do not give them high priority, do not allocate matching funds that are required, or otherwise delay, distort, or ignore what comes down from on high.
Look at the economic recovery steps to rescue banks and, presumably, to increase their lending. Banks retain discretion of what to do with the money under their control, even if it originates with the federal government. Early signs are that they remain tight fisted, perhaps on account of their continuing fear of widespread insolvency. Does this indicate a flaw in the details of the policy to rescue the banks? Or does it reflect a wise decision by federal officials to rely ultimately on bankers to judge risk.
One can applaud President Obama's decision to end the ban on financing organizations concerned with population control that practice or advise abortion. However, his stroke of the pen does not mean that all of the clerks who must approve government spending will adhere to the spirit of his decision.
One can also applaud an end to the abuses at Guantanamo. However, the closing down is scheduled to take a year. Still waiting are decisions about what to do with the prisoners.
Campaign rhetoric to end involvement in Iraq has been watered down to diminish markedly US military involvement. We do not know what will happen during the extended timetable with respect to the development of Iraqis' own security capabilities, or how counter arguments by generals and other functionaries will get to the President's pragmatic side.
The new head of the CIA is against "torture." So are we all. Most likely we do not agree on its definition. We may agree that information will not come from bad people simply by asking for it. Waterboarding and sleep deprivation may be out. There are other techniques. It's a platitude to say that pressure does not produce useful information. Sometime it does. Sometime it does not. The detailed information that guided the IDF in Gaza, and leads it to bad people in the West Bank virtually every night does not come from being nice.
We do not know what will be the new American policy with respect to our immediate surroundings. When Bill Clinton was president and Ehud Barak prime minister, I was prepared to see an international boundary 100 meters from these fingers. The Palestinians chose violence instead. Early signs are that the fantasy-sellers are not on the Obama team to deal with the Middle East. The President's first telephone calls were to Mahmoud Abbas, Husni Mubarak, and Ehud Olmert. There is not a revolutionary on the list.
George Mitchell is coming this week. It will not be a social visit, but neither will it involve maps of final borders, and demands about concessions. He describes his first task as firming up the cease fire concerned with Gaza. That suggests that he recognizes the impact of the recent three weeks on what can happen subsequently.
We hear that something will have to change, or efforts to achieve peace will go nowhere.
There are Israelis who do not want peace efforts to go anywhere. Others do not expect them to go anywhere. A lot of us are tired, and somewhat fearful of clumsy and repetitive efforts by Americans and others that overlook Palestinian realities.
As I read the research about implementation, the process is more difficult, and less certain when issues are complex, emotionally sensitive, and especially when they require the cooperation of different governments that are suspicious of one another.
Current polls show right-of-center Likud in the lead less than three weeks before a national election. A party further to the right, Israel our Home, may become the second largest party in a Likud-led coalition. If that happens, it will add to the challenges of outsiders who want to do better than others who have tried before them.
I welcome comments sent to my e-mail address below.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Dept of Political Science
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
msira@mscc.huji.ac.il
Tel: +972-2-532-2725
Fax: +972-2-582-9144