President Obama says that he will act aggressively to bring about peace between Israel and Palestinians, as well as between Israel and other Arab countries. His delegate to the Middle East, George Mitchell, says that there is no problem without a solution.
Welcome to the latest round in American efforts to settle affairs of the world.
I hope these folks do better than their predecessors' aspirations for Iraq, Afghanistan, and South Vietnam.
Since America's ascendance to a world power, the record has been mixed.
Credit is due for decent jobs in post-war Europe and Japan, and helping bring stability, prosperity, and democracy to South Korea and Taiwan. George Mitchell did well in Northern Ireland.
Latin American continues with its ups and downs on scales of governance and prosperity, and Africa mostly downs.
Not all of the blame or praise should go to American efforts. Others have meddled more heavily, and with no greater success, in Africa. Europeans, Japanese, Koreans, and the people of Taiwan deserve a good deal of credit for their success, and Latin Americans a good deal of the responsibility for what happens there.
Likewise, the people of South Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan share responsibility for the frustration of American aims. The pity lies in investments of blood and treasure wasted in Vietnam, and heading that way in Iraq and Afghanistan.
India and China have done well, with little input from American administrations.
The problems of our tiny spot may produce more of an embarrassment than accomplishment for President Obama.
Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazan) is the hope of the United States and European governments, but is widely scorned among Palestinians. Some view him as a collaborator for dealing with Israel and not coming to the aid of Gaza. Some view him as a figurehead for the aged and corrupt. Staying in office beyond the end of his term does not add to his standing. Many view him as incompetent, weak, and irrelevant.
Gaza may be one of those defining moments in a people's history that requires a rethinking of where they are going, and how to nudge them. The destruction is profound. Providers of the aid necessary to reconstruct are saying that they will not pass their assistance through Hamas. Palestinians are not enthusiastic about relying on Abbas and his friends.
What will happen at this intersection of refusing to help those defined as terrorists, and relying on those defined as corrupt and incompetent?
Many of the residents will recall earlier days of living rough. Perhaps they are in for another 60 years defined as refugees, nurtured by the food and propaganda of the United Nations and its local staff.
Radical Islam remains prominent, if not dominant. The Palestinian civil war is not over. Hamas took advantage of the confusion of recent weeks to kill people identified as Fatah.
Among the challenges of George Mitchell will be producing some kind of unity among the Palestinians, finding a leadership that is not fanatic and suicidal, and willing to deal with Israelis who just now have produced so much death and destruction.
The quick fix should not be a wholesale withdrawal of Jewish settlements from the West Bank.
The destruction of Gaza, and its complications for any prospect of peace, flowed directly from the withdrawal of Jewish settlements from Gaza. The response of the Palestinians was an escalation of rocket and mortar fire toward Israeli civilians. After years of Israeli dithering, threatening, and preparing, came three weeks of destruction.
A magician may find a way to withdraw Jewish settlements from the West Bank without escalating Palestinian terror, but part of the magic must be convincing the Israeli public.
The more extreme of the settlers have little support. Jewish religious fanatics do not engender any more empathy than Muslim religious fanatics. The government has, on occasion, dismantled small and isolated settlements, established without prior authority. Uprooting families that have lived where they are for decades is another matter, especially after the Palestinian response to withdrawal from Gaza.
The Holy Books describe miracles in this place. Secular scholars call them myths. Even some religious leaders describe them as "stories for children.".
We hope for the best, but should not expect miracles. We know that President Obama can talk. He and his emissaries must also demonstrate creativity. Pushing the same old solutions will not solve the same old problems.
I welcome comments sent to my e-mail address below.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Dept of Political Science
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
msira@mscc.huji.ac.il
Tel: +972-2-532-2725
Fax: +972-2-582-9144