It may not be over, and it is not likely to be the end of history or even the end of Israel's problems with the Muslims, but the early indications about Israel's Gaza operation are not all that bad.
Leaders of France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Britain, and the Czech Republic came to Jerusalem and spoke in support of Israel's accomplishments and intentions. Earlier in the day Husni Mubarek hosted the same group, along with prominent Arab leaders, and they did not condemn Israel.
Israeli leaders are expressing what seems to be widely felt here: sorrow for the deaths and suffering of non-combatants in Gaza, which is not the same as an apology. Already the government along with numerous volunteers has set up a field hospital on the borders of Gaza to provide treatment of civilians, and screening of cases to be sent for further care in Israeli hospitals.
The army has begun pulling its troops out of Gaza. Not all of them have left, and reservists have yet to be released. Forces are positioned close to the border. Israeli leaders do not enjoy killing, and they do not want to rule a hostile population, but they are not idiots. The IDF has already liquidated one group that fired rockets after the cease fire. It has signaled that it may tolerate some infractions of a cease fire for a short while without a massive response, but there is a limit to its patience.
The scenes of destruction in large parts of Gaza testify to the limits of Israeli tolerance. It will be best for all of us if the leadership of Hamas, Hizbollah, and Iran get the message.
As yet there is no resolution for the Israeli soldier held prisoner by Hamas for more than two years.
The world's attention will go to Washington, and the extravaganza of the Obama inauguration. That also is good for us, better than saturation coverage of destroyed buildings, screaming Gazans, and human interest stories about those who have suffered.
Not all the stories of suffering are as they look at first.
Most prominent is that of the Gazan physician, fluent in Hebrew, who acquired ranking Israeli friends while working in Israeli hospitals. The media extended time and sympathy in response to the deaths of three daughters, and his claims that there was no reason for the IDF to shell the building in which they were sheltered.
All the results of inquiries are not yet final, but the initial response from the IDF is that snipers were firing at its soldiers from the building. Initial medical tests of a surviving daughter found fragments in her body typical of the missiles used by Hamas rather than the IDF.
There is an election scheduled for February 10th. We are likely to move quickly from the efforts of ranking politicians to appear cooperative during the fighting.
The most recent polls show an increased probability for a right of center government, led by Binyamin Netanyahu. Tip Livni and Kadima lost some ground from previous polls.
The question is whether these are temporary changes. They may reflect the fighting to move people to the right; the skill of Netanyahu to express sentiments appropriate to a time of national threat; and the laid back, even passive nature of Livni.
The popularity of Ehud Barak and his Labor Party improved significantly during the war, but not enough to make him a serious prospect as prime minister. Commentators view him as the likely defense minister in either a Likud or Kadima government.
If Gaza remains quiet enough to keep the IDF quiet, the political squabbles will increase in volume. The parties will unveil songs and slogans for the time slots allotted on television and radio, most likely updated to show their claims about Gaza from those produced earlier. Each major party will talk about its accomplishments, make promises about the future of national security, and devote some time to other issues. The parties supported by most Arab voters will be critical, and get their customary ten or so seats in the Knesset.
We will also hear from the wanna bees among the other parties registered for the election. The two green parties (environmentalists) will try to distinguish themselves from the green leaf party that wants to legalize marijuana, and hope that competition between two sets of environmentalists will not keep both of them out of the Knesset. The pensioners are tottering on the edge of the minimum poll required to receive any seats. Twenty or so other parties will get their few minutes of media time, and nothing more. A few thousand Israelis will decide that no party is worthy of their support, and insert a blank paper into the ballot box.
If recent history is the best predictor of the near future, as it usually is, the next Knesset and government will not be all that much different from the present Knesset and government. Some of the faces will be different, but the same old problems will continue to generate the same old responses.
I welcome comments sent to my e-mail address below.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Dept of Political Science
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
msira@mscc.huji.ac.il
Tel: +972-2-532-2725
Fax: +972-2-582-9144