The Israeli government is contemplating a virtual cease fire.
It is far from perfect.
It will be opposed and ridiculed by those who think they should be elected to lead Israel, as well as by those who fear that the sky is falling, that the whole world is against Israel all of the time, and that Israel must look after itself in apocalyptic ways. Also, those who look under the bed each night before retiring will not like it.
In the case of a country that cannot aspire to total victory, it may be the best attainable.
When has any country achieved total victory since 1945? And that victory was not totally total insofar as it led to the Cold War, Korea, Vietnam, Cuba, and other messiness.
Israel has killed more than 1,100 Palestinians and wounded more than 5,000. Many of the wounded will not get decent care.
Israel has lost 10 soldiers and three civilians. Its two hundred or so wounded will get decent care.
A reasonable reckoning is that Israel has killed enough, and caused enough damage.
Not only should Hamas think carefully about starting something else, but so should other movements and countries that dream of eliminating Israel.
Could Israel have done more?
Rooting out all the religious fanatics, and causing the survivors to admit their error is impossible, especially in the case of those claiming leadership of the faith from safely away in Syria, Iran, and elsewhere.
As much as we can tell from the media, Egypt is telling Israel that Hamas has said it will honor a cease fire. The United States will help Israel and Egypt stop the rearmament of Hamas. Israeli forces will stay in Gaza for a while, to serve as a threat against any reluctance of Hamas to stop firing.
As far as we know, Israel has not committed itself to keep open its border with Gaza for supplies. That will remain a way to pressure Hamas.
Also as far as we know, there is no agreement about the Israeli prisoner held since 2006. However, Israel has resources for dealing with the issue. It has taken upwards of 250 new prisoners in this operation, and holds more than 11,000 other Palestinian prisoners. Many of those have been convicted in Israeli courts of murder and other serious crimes, and are serving long sentences. Others are Hamas politicians swept up in one operation or another.
Should you expect this to produce a wider settlement, and the aspiration of two states living in peace side by side?
Not unless you are living in la la land.
There has been no indication in recent years that the nominal leadership of moderate Palestinians has shown enough flexibility to reach a deal. Most likely Gaza will increase Palestinian animosity toward Israel, make any deal more difficult to achieve.
No amount of pressure on Israel, as imagined by Americans, Europeans, and others, will produce the miracles required.
Israel has acted reasonably in this round of the conflict. It has acted against those who have attacked its civilians, and said they want to destroy the country. It will not occupy a hostile population.
Its accomplishments are no less admirable than other countries can claim for their military activities in recent years.
Those who have signed on to the campaign to punish Israel severely for war crimes must consider the problems in fighting in crowded cities, when the enemy uses residences, mosques, schools and hospitals to shelter its munitions and fighters. A decent analysis of the problems appears in http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/17/world/middleeast/17israel.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
Those who want to help Israel should continue to support it with crucial material, and political assistance in international forums. They should not assume that they know its needs better than its elected government, or to pressure it into achieving their own improbable dreams.
I welcome comments sent to my e-mail address below.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Dept of Political Science
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
msira@mscc.huji.ac.il
Tel: +972-2-532-2725
Fax: +972-2-582-9144