In 1982, Ariel Sharon, then Defense Minister, was selling the idea that an invasion of Lebanon to destroy the Palestinian bases used to attack Israel would also destroy the idea of a Palestinian homeland in the Land of Israel. Palestinians would take over Jordan, whose population already had a near or actual Palestinian majority, and Jordan would become Palestine.
It did not happen that way.
In 2009, Israel is fighting Hamas in Gaza. No one in the Israeli government is saying that the purpose is to write finish to the idea of Palestine, but it may happen.
The logic appears in the New York Times.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/15/world/middleeast/15fatah.html?_r=1&hp
The Times correspondent argues that neither Hamas nor Fatah can govern Gaza or the West Bank. Hamas because of Israeli and international opposition, and Fatah because of corruption and a well-earned reputation for irrelevance among the Palestinians.
To go a bit beyond the Times analysis:
You support Palestine, you get Hamas.
You support Hamas, look what is happening in Gaza.
The idea of Palestine may go into a deep sleep, or even die. But what about the Palestinians? Estimates range between 9 and 11 million worldwide. One million of them are Israeli citizens; a bit over 3 million live in the West Bank and Gaza. There are more than one million living in Middle Eastern countries that define them as "refugees," without rights as citizens. The rest are scattered to places where they have assimilated more or less.
For more than 60 years they have been a football for Muslim and other ideologues, or the Palestinians claiming to lead them.
What becomes of Gaza is the most pressing unanswered question.
Who will put up the cash to rebuild it?
Remember that there is an international financial crisis. The price of oil has dropped by 70 percent. Iran has problems at home. China is the only cash cow on the planet. It may not love Palestine enough to bankroll it.
The Israeli government does not want Iran to gain the credit for rebuilding Gaza. Israel does not want to rebuild it, or otherwise govern it.
The next most pressing question is what happens to the West Bank as a consequence of what is happening in Gaza.
One should not assume that the leaders or people of the West Bank will applaud Israel's operation, even though the war may write finish to the major competitor of the Fatah party.
Assuming that the recent past is the best predictor of the near future, Fatah will run basic services, and the IDF will intervene when it identifies someone with evil intent.
Something like that may also be the near future of Gaza. The IDF may withdraw, but go in an out to deal with threats.
One can expect a continued outflow of Palestinians from the West Bank to more attractive settings. Most of the Christians have already gone, and Muslims are leaving. The out migration will weaken the professional and social infrastructures of Palestine.
Currently no one can leave Gaza without hard-to-get permits from Israeli or Egyptian authorities.
Whatever happens is not likely to be pleasant for Israelis. Many Palestinians will be angry, and have access to firearms and explosives. All of them have access to knives, stones, and slingshots.
The idea of a Palestinian state will not easily disappear in the presence of Muslim and other ideologues. If they do not shift gears from the ideas they have promoted since 1948, however, it may look increasingly like they are beating a sick horse, if not a dead one.
I welcome comments sent to my e-mail address below.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Dept of Political Science
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
msira@mscc.huji.ac.il
Tel: +972-2-532-2725
Fax: +972-2-582-9144