A recent article in the NY Times represents American arrogance that once again may bring more frustration than success to the prospects of an Israeli-Palestinian accord.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/13/world/middleeast/13diplo.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
The key to the Middle East, it says, is in the United States. It will just take the right key to do the job.
The article portrays five Jews, all who have been close to the pinnacle of the State Department, and who want power again in the Obama administration. They are Martin S. Indyk, Daniel C. Kurtzer, Aaron David Miller, and Dennis B. Ross. Each thinks that he know what to offer, how, with what kind of pressure. At the same time, each knows why his rivals cannot succeed.
What is missing is a consideration of the structure of Palestinian society, its leadership or lack thereof, and the games being played elsewhere among Muslim countries.
It's an old story, but Americans do not seem to get it.
Palestine does not exist as a unified community. Its several factions, based in localities, extended families, theology and/or ideology rank their own interests above any national interest. Among the ways they compete with one another is to be even more nationalist, religious, or violent than others.
Each faction has its own arms, is capable of embarrassing the Palestinian center with their own attacks on Israeli targets, and of holding off any aspiration of the center to impose order.
Some of the factions, now most prominently Hamas, have overseas patrons who push them to extremism, and supply money and weapons to use against Israel and other Palestinians.
These traits of Palestinians hardly seem likely to bend in the face of one proposal or another, and certainly not in the face of pressure on Israel. They rest on cultural traits going deep into Palestinian society, politics elsewhere in the Middle East, and Islam.
All this was true before Gaza. What comes next is anyone's guess. It may not be easier to move Palestinian moderates beyond the non-negotiable demands they have been putting on the table for some time: a return to the borders of 1967; the right of 1948 and 1967 refugees to return home; and a Palestinian capital in Jerusalem.
Only a limited version of the last issue (a Palestinian capital in Jerusalem) may find acceptance among Israeli leaders, and that may stumble, as it did in 2000, on an inability of Palestinians and Israelis to agree about dividing rights to the Temple Mount/Noble Sanctuary.
The package insisted on by moderate Palestinians is not likely to win acceptance from extremist factions.
Gaza seems likely to increase Palestinian animosity toward Israel, and distrust of any Palestinian willing to deal with Israel. Persistent attacks on Israeli civilians and the record of Palestinian fighters using women and children as shields are likely to sharpen Israeli distrust of Palestinians.
There is an Israeli national election scheduled for February 10. If the war continues, the voting may have to wait. Whatever party is chosen will have its own agenda for dealing with the Palestinians.
There is also a question about the Palestinian leadership. Mahmoud Abbas' term as president has expired. So far there is no indication of an election. The war in Gaza will confound what in any case was shaping up to be a problem.
President-elect Obama and Secretary of State-designate Clinton say that they will go right to work on Israeli-Palestinian peace.
Is it possible that the Israelis and Palestinians could do better alone, without Americans falling over themselves in an effort to propose, push, and prod?
It might be worth a try, after the dust from Gaza has a chance to settle, the Israelis choose the party that will lead them, and if the Palestinians can figure out who will lead them..
It would help if the Obama administration demonstrates patience and modesty in the face of the elements involved in the Israel-Palestinian impasse.
We can hope for miracles without expecting them. That applies both to an Israel-Palestinian accord, and to patience or modesty in the American administration.
I welcome comments sent to my e-mail address below.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Dept of Political Science
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
msira@mscc.huji.ac.il
Tel: +972-2-532-2725
Fax: +972-2-582-9144