You have heard about the fog of war. Now we are in the fog of peace.
The droplets in this fog are the demands and proposals to stop the fighting. So far the participants include officials from France, Turkey, European Union, United Nations, Egypt, Britain, United States, Russia, China, and a host of lesser actors.
Each has a slightly different idea. Israel should stop its attacks; should stop for 48 hours in order to give Hamas a chance to consider its options; Israel and Hamas must stop together; Israel must open the borders to Gaza for food and supplies, with or without stopping its attacks.
The noise is just as loud, and no less confusing from Israelis. We are hearing about elected officials with direct responsibility for the war, other politicians who want us to know what they think, and commentators from every point of the ideological spectrum. There is an election in six weeks. So far there has been some measure of unity among the heads of major parties, but they are, after all, politicians.
Military officers cannot speak about policy issues publicly, but we hear about "senior officers" who have said this or that, either in the closed forums where they speak to policymakers, or where they speak without attribution to a friendly journalist.
The fog gets thicker when we hear one report about an official who supports a cease fire, and in the same newscast the denial by the same official or those claiming to be a spokesperson.
Yet other elements of the fog are actions that belie words. Last night we heard that Defense Minister Ehud Barak was supporting the French proposal of a testing ceasefire of 48 hours, and that Defense Minister Barak was increasing the call up of reserves by another 2,500 soldiers.
Assuming that he is supporting the cease fire, commentators are predicting that Barak will lose the political advantage he gained from the success of recent days. If he quits now, his Labor Party may sink to the level it was before this began, or maybe even lower.
The latest report is that Barak opposes the idea of a cease fire, even a temporary halt of 48 hours.
The number of outsiders advocating one proposal or another, and their exalted status in their home countries and in the international community means that there must be considerable discussion, coordination, and preservation of egos for these efforts to go forward.
The French are pressing for a unilateral temporary cease fire, and will send ranking officials to Israel next Monday in order to press the idea.
Does this reduce their proposal to lip service? By next Monday there will be less of Gaza worth saving.
There is no obvious answer to the question, What should Israel do now?
*The IDF has sent a clear message. Hamas may claim victory for one reason or another, but it knows the cost of attacking Israel. Even if it does not stop firing immediately (we know about Arab pride), it will stop. Just as Hizbollah in *Lebanon proclaims victory but stays away from the Israeli border, Hamas will demonstrate the wisdom of those who wish to survive.
*Israel has not yet lost the support of the actors who count in international affairs. That may change if a bomb errs and kills too many woman and children all at once. Israel should quit while it can report that the vast majority of Palestinian casualties are young male fighters.
*Stopping now will accomplish the bulk of Israel's intentions, without the casualties inevitable from a ground assault.
*Remember Lebanon. The air war was a success. The ground troops were not well prepared for what they encountered, and Hizbollah claimed victory.
There is another hand. There always is at least one of those in a Jewish conversation, even when a Jew is talking to himself.
*Hamas is intense. It advocates suicide, and may be intent on a collective demonstration. Its motivations are spiritual. There may be no message that can convince it to desist from a divine call to destroy Israel, other than a defeat that is more total than it has suffered to date.
*The further punishment of Hamas can make the point even more strongly than at present that other fanatics should think yet again before accepting a call from their god or their prophet to destroy Israel.
*In order to punish Hamas more completely, it will be necessary to use those tanks and ground troops massing on the border. There will be casualties, but the advantages gained to date will be lost if the humiliation is not more complete.
*It is not certain that the Lebanon scenario is relevant. The IDF has prepared itself more thoroughly for this invasion.
Currently the best argument against using the ground forces is the weather. It is likely to rain for another day or so. Dithering may continue until the sun comes out.
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Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Dept of Political Science
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
msira@mscc.huji.ac.il
Tel: +972-2-532-2725
Fax: +972-2-582-9144