This is a time of testing for Tzipi Livni. Does she have what it takes to be a prime minister?
Even if she passes the test, she may not win the election, scheduled for February 10. Benyamin (Bibi) Netanyahu has reinvigorated himself and Likud, and may become prime minister no matter what Livni does. If she does not measure up in the next few days, Netanyahu can walk into the prime minister's office without great effort.
The attorney general has announced that he intends to indict Prime Minister Ehud Olmert for one of the crimes being investigated. He is alleged to have billed multiple times for numerous overseas trips. Reports are that he put more than $80,000 in his pocket from prestigious Israeli and international Jewish organizations over the course of several years. The police and attorney general are still working on other allegations of criminal violations, involving envelopes stuffed with cash, and dubious personnel appointments made by Olmert when he climbed the political ladder from one office to another.
There is yet to be a formal indictment. Still pending is a hearing for the prime minister, meant to give him the opportunity to persuade judicial authorities to lessen the charges, or drop them altogether. The prime minister and his attorneys can drag out the process. They will demand an ample opportunity to study the file, and challenge its details. They may insist that the attorney general wait on this case until the police and his office finish with all the charges against Olmert. We will be much older before this is over.
Ms Livni convened an emergency meeting of Kadima office holders the day after the attorney general announced his intention to indict Olmert. She declared that Olmert must relinquish his office. She cited the precedent of Yitzhak Rabin, who suspended himself from the same office, also in the run-up to an election, when his wife was indicted for financial irregularities. She quoted Olmert demanding that Moshe Katsav suspend himself from the presidency when the attorney general announced his intention to present an indictment. All of Kadima's senior politicians (except Olmert, who was not at the meeting) joined Livni in demanding that the prime minister vacate his office.
Olmert's response was to charge Livni with using his misfortunes in order to advance her political campaign. His spokesman ridiculed the substance of the Attorney General's case, and claimed that it would collapse as soon as Olmert's attorneys began to show how flimsy it was. When saying this, the spokesman stumbled and stuttered from one phrase to another. One could imagine him thinking, "Do I really have to say this?"
Other news and Shabbat is giving the prime minister two or three days to consider his next steps. The terror attack in Mumbai (Bombay) has first call on the media. Here the attention is on the seizure of the Lubavitcher (Chabad) Center, and the fate of the young rabbi, his wife, and a number of Israelis and other guests in the building. After 36 hours Indian forces are still fighting the invaders. News and commentary about Olmert is at the end of each broadcast and on the inner pages of the newspapers.
Livni has to get rid of Olmert if she wants to be prime minister.
What can she do?
She has the upper hand with the public, as well as her party colleagues. Olmert ranks somewhere along with George W. Bush in the basement of popular esteem. With an announcement of an upcoming indictment, his standing is dropping further.
If Livni is prime ministerial material, she will organize pressure that should build in days or a week to be irresistible. The treatment of Katsav provides a model. Politicians and other elites can refuse to meet with Olmert. Commentators are already ridiculing his efforts to shape policy, and demanding that he suspend himself. In such an event, Livni would become the acting prime minister. She will gain the incumbent's advantage in the election campaign, as well as showing that she is sufficiently forceful to lead the country.
Olmert's advantage comes from the political opponents of Livni. Several of them are demonstratively quiet. The head of the Pensioners' Party said that if he was in Olmert's place he would suspend himself. Then he praised Olmert for being the best prime minister ever for Israel's senior citizens, and said that Olmert has every right to defend himself. Olmert and Netanyahu have been praising one another for their efforts to deal with Israel's version of the international economic crisis.
Commentators agree that the issue is not a matter of law. Olmert does not have to leave office at this time. Livni is talking about morality. She says that Olmert has every right to defend himself, but as a citizen, and not as prime minister. The greater reality is politics. If Livni does not move Olmert, she will move to the back benches of the Knesset.
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Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Home tel: 972-2-532-2725
Cell phone: 054-683-5325
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msira@mscc.huji.ac.il