A conundrum is a problem without a solution.
We expect government to deal with conundrums.
We are usually unhappy with what the government does.
If we are honest, we admit that we do not know a better way.
Among the well known conundrums that affect several countries:
Wars that have no end game that is acceptable.
Problems of health, poverty, and inadequate housing, transportation, and other infrastructure that cannot be dealt with by the technology or resources available.
Populations mired in broken families, poverty, and crime, despite one government effort after another, and great expenditures.
Illegal immigration, supported by great push from poor societies that supply the people, and a reluctance of the receiving countries to do without cheap labor for jobs viewed as undesirable by its citizens.
One of the conundrums currently on Israel's agenda is Gaza. Its components are:
A regime governed by religious fanatics, convinced of their refusal to recognize Israel's right to exist.
The regime's capacity to threaten Israelis living close to Gaza with rocket and mortar attacks, and efforts at incursion by armed gangs.
The lack of complete control by the primary group in Gaza--Hamas--over groups that compete with it for public support and the righteousness of their actions against Israel.
The cost in human lives, primarily of Israeli soldiers but also of Palestinian civilians, that would be incurred by a massive Israeli retaliation.
The cost in international condemnation and the possibility of economic sanctions in response to Israel's use of great force, especially that which would cost the lives of many civilians, or in response to Israel's use of its control over Gaza to limit supplies of food, fuel, electricity, water, and other necessities.
The temporary palliative of massive force or blockade, not likely to produce a cessation of hostilities for more than a limited time.
The costs and frustrations of military conquest and prolonged occupation of a hostile population.
The importance of Egypt and other Arab regimes in international affairs, and the reluctance of Israel to pursue actions beyond their capacity to tolerate them.
The existence of an Israeli prisoner in Gaza, and problems in arranging his release or visits with him by humanitarian organizations.
In recent days a fragile cease fire, or vaguely defined period of quiet, has been spoiled, at least temporarily, by violence from both sides. Again the residents of Sderot, Ashkelon, and other localities are threatened with rockets and mortars. They demand that the government act to stop the attacks, or provide them with the means to harden their homes, schools, and other public facilities against the missiles.
Once again, the politicians in the government and the senior officers in the IDF are arguing and dithering about their options. It does not help that we are in the process of an election campaign, with politicians calculating the votes to be gained by a posture that is either aggressive or accommodating. Some politicians demand an apocalyptic response. Others caution overreaction. There is also the lame duck prime minister, spending some of his time being investigated by the police, and some of his time making proclamations that his colleagues are reluctant to support.
The response of politicians to demands that they provide the resources to protect Israelis from missiles is that the solution to the problem of Sderot and other localities is not in them, but in Gaza. Some may mean that the solution will come with an invasion. Others may mean that the solution will come with an agreement between Israel and Hamas.
Most recently the prime minister ordered the IDF to produce a plan for dealing with Gaza.
Someone senior in the IDF reminded the media, once again, that there already exists several plans in the hands of the government. The problem is not the lack of plans, but the inability of the government to decide.
The government and IDF is likely to respond, as in the past, with a little of this, and a little of that. There will be days without supplies going into Gaza, and limited attacks.
If those actions do not produce a reduction in the missiles, there will be other suggestions.
There will also be visits to Sderot, Ashkelon, and other localities by ranking politicians and soldiers who offer sympathy and support, but not immediate or complete relief.
That is a conundrum, and efforts to cope without producing greater problems.
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Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Home tel: 972-2-532-2725
Cell phone: 054-683-5325
Fax: 972-2-582-9144
msira@mscc.huji.ac.il