Is the American empire in decline?
What should be the strategy of a small country like Israel?
A combination of greed and stupidity has produced what may be the greatest world economic crisis since the 1930's. It is a story of huge rewards for individuals at the pinnacles of finance in the United States, who paved the road to disaster, and officials who sold the notion that the function of government is not to govern.
Americans have also showed narrow minded arrogance in their use of military power. How many adventures like Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan can a country enter and still remain great?
Comparisons with the decline of Britain are too simple. The United States currently is larger, richer, and more advanced relative to others in its economy and technology than Britain when it was at the height of its power prior to World War I. Even if much of the American advantage depends on imported scientists, engineers, entrepreneurs, and capital, it should have enough of an edge to hold off competition from China, India, or Western Europe.
Likewise comparisons with the Soviet Empire are too simple. Economic fragility and corruption limited its capacity. America could withstand Vietnam, but the Soviet Union could not withstand Afghanistan.
Modesty might help in holding off the American decline. There may be enough of it despite citizens who do not recognize their frailties, reject criticism, and continue to think in terms of the best, the brightest, and the most endowed by the Creator.
Barack Obama expresses skepticism about military power and an inclination toward international cooperation. Awesome, however, are the problems he faces in the economic crisis, military entanglements, and Iran. It will take time to see what comes out of his administration, and good luck in avoiding unpleasant surprises.
If the fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan are part of a larger strategy against Islamic fanaticism, the armed forces of the United States may not yet be "at the end of the beginning." Winston Churchill used the phrase to describe the allied victory at El Alamein in 1942, when campaigns in Europe were still in the future.
Alongside the problems of banks, the stock market, General Motors and Chrysler are colleges and universities caught by falling endowments and contributions, an increase in students needing financial aid, and--in the case of public institutions--declining allocations from state governments. Their presidents are calling for federal aid. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/08/education/08college.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Get in line, folks.
Israel illustrates the problems of small countries that must find their way amidst the larger, richer, and more powerful. One official has gone public with advice to the new American administration that it avoid pressure. Israel will continue to seek a way to peace with its neighbors in its own terms. Arrogant Americans who demand that Israel do this, avoid that, and insist on a short timetable for compliance strain the Israeli leadership beyond its capacity to deliver. They also encourage Palestinians to expect a solution from others, rather than reconsider what they claim to be their non-negotiable rights.
The United States may be the best friend of this small country, but it is not the only friend. The American way to the future is not the only way. The world is dynamic. Alternatives may not abound, but they exist. Some of them appear in what is now the American opposition. It may bother American Jews that Israelis welcome support from the Christian Right. It may bother Americans that Israelis sell weapons or military know how in Africa, as well as to China and India. Americans may wonder why Israelis warm to the French leadership.
Doomsayers emphasize an Arab takeover of Europe via migration. They may account for 10 percent of the population in France. Twenty percent of the Israeli population is Arab. There are things we can learn from one another.
To be overly committed to any foreign power is dangerous for a small country. It is part of wisdom to nurture whatever advantages may be available, all the while being careful to avoid offending those which are most promising. Governing a small country is riskier than governing a world power. The abyss is closer. A misstep is more dangerous.
Even for a world power, there is an abyss. Great power is not forever assured.
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Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Home tel: 972-2-532-2725
Cell phone: 054-683-5325
Fax: 972-2-582-9144
msira@mscc.huji.ac.il