It is difficult to believe the opening paragraph of a New York Times article, that
The official line in Washington, Jerusalem and Ramallah is that the decision by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of Israel to resign will not affect American efforts to negotiate a peace deal between Israelis and Palestinians before the end of the year. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/01/world/middleeast/01diplo.html
The article goes on to state that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and other State Department officials have not given up their goal of an agreement before the end of the year. "Fundamentally, as Americans," (an) official added, "we don't give up." Ms Rice has told Israeli and Palestinian officials that she will return to the region in late August for more talks.
The article also cites Israelis, Palestinians, and Americans who recognize that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert does not have the political or moral legitimacy to sell any agreement that he might achieve, either to his Cabinet or to the larger Knesset.
While the details of Israeli-Palestinian discussions to date are not public, there are enough signs to indicate that the Messiah himself (or herself) could not produce significant movement.
Palestinians have not shown themselves ready to compromise on their iconic issues of the 1967 borders, a capital in Jerusalem, or the return of refugees from 1948. Occasional threats of declaring independence unilaterally, withdrawing from discussions, or dismantling the Palestine National Authority if they do not get what they want indicate that Olmert has not been overly generous. If the Fatah party government of the West Bank would agree to an Israeli proposal, the Hamas government of Gaza might well react with violence against both Israel and Fatah.
On the basis of what he has said publicly, one should not rely on still-Prime Minister Olmert to exploit an interregnum in order to make as-yet unheard of concessions. It is more likely that the state prosecutor and police will reach the point in their investigations where they present a bill of indictment. That would trigger Olmert's immediate resignation, and put international negotiations even further away from the politics relevant to Israel's future.
We should never say never. One day a Palestinian regime might emerge across the West Bank and Gaza that is willing to accept something like the deals that Israelis have been contemplating since 1967.
It may be too late for the Palestinians. Israel has it own advocates of total control who would not give up any of the Promised Land. At least some of those who were inclined to territorial compromise have been soured by the response of Palestinians to the withdrawal from Gaza. And some gave up on them earlier due to Intifada al-Aqsa, or previous waves of violence.
We have to live alongside the Palestinians. That does not mean that we have to trust them, yet.
The American administration that still seems intent on a quick deal is the same administration that said it was intent on bringing democracy to Iraq and Afghanistan. Were they serious in those cases, or simply trying to add a positive fillip to game plans built on violence?
We may never know what American leaders really think. We can hope that the most important Americans are not those concerned about never giving up on their goals, but who are intent in staying within the bounds of good sense. If not, we hope that Israelis will evade whatever messianic wishes come out of the White House prior to, or after, January 20, 2009.
There are four synagogues within 100 meters of my home. Not much further away, and well within the range of the muezzins' calls for prayer, are numerous mosques. Often I hear the bells from churches in the Christian quarter of the Old City about three kilometers to the south. While I do not participate regularly in religious rituals, I spend part of every Sabbath morning studying Talmud with a religious friend.
Reason, a recognition of realities, compromise, and political negotiation are prominent in my conceptions of good works. May I not be judged for blasphemy if I ask friends of all faiths to pray that God save us from those who believe in miracles.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Home tel: 972-2-532-2725
Cell phone: 054-683-5325
Fax: 972-2-582-9144
msira@mscc.huji.ac.il