Not much seems to be happening behind the curtain drawn around the peace talks between Israel and Palestine (West Bank).
Prime Minister Olmert has said that no agreement on Jerusalem is likely before the end of the year. This brought a comment from a senior Palestinian that there would be no agreement that did not provide for a Palestinian capital in Jerusalem. It also brought a statement from the White House urging greater effort in order to reach an accord.
In what sounds like desperation, a member of the Palestinian negotiating team proclaimed
If the situation does not progress toward putting an end to the construction in the settlements and toward a serious and continuous negotiations, we must undertake steps similar to that in Kosovo and unilaterally declare independence.
This is not the first time the Palestinians have talked about a unilateral declaration of independence. The Palestine Liberation Organization actually produced one in 1988, at a meeting of its "National Council" in Algiers. Nobody important on this side of the Mediterranean did anything in response.
President Mahmoud Abbas has shown some nervousness in the face of more substantial diplomatic action on the Israeli-Gaza front. A cease fire agreed via Egyptian intermediaries is holding, and there are further discussions about trading Israeli prisoners for Gilad Shalit. Hamas, in charge of Gaza, is demanding the release of Hamas ministers in the Palestinian National Authority being held in Israeli prisons. Abbas has threatened to dismantle the whole Palestinian National Authority if Israel takes such a step.
So much for the unity of Palestine.
Israeli politicians are doing what they can to cool the prospects of any agreements. Knesset members of several parties have said that Prime Minister Olmert lacks the authority to decide anything important. Expectations are that his career will end with the primary called by his Kadima party to select a new leadership in September. Nothing is sure, but it appears that the Israeli political crises outweighs everything else.
We hear positive things about Israeli-Syrian negotiations via intermediaries of Turkey. Here, too, nothing is likely to happen before Israelis are more certain about their prime minister.
Numerous commentators from the military and political sectors have been worrying about military preparations of Hizbollah in the north, and Hamas in the south.
No one should discount potential threats, but it is possible to perceive more positive prospects.
In both cases, there may be some benefits for Israel due to Arabs with power.
Hizbollah does not rule Lebanon, but it is a major factor in a country that no one else rules. Hamas controls Gaza. In the West Bank, about the only thing Abbas can do is find his way to Jerusalem for yet another meeting with hugs and handshakes. Israeli security forces are doing the heavy lifting in the West Bank. Nightly incursions occasionally produce Palestinian casualties, as well as more inmates for Israel's security prisons.
Israel has learned from 35 years experience that a strong government in Syria can provide quiet on the northeastern border, even without a peace treaty. Perhaps the same can result from the strong authorities of Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
Both Hizbollah and Hamas have recent experience with the power of Israel. The Lebanese suffered some 1,200 deaths and a great deal of property damage in a month of fighting during 2006. Hamas and its allies in Gaza suffered more than 500 deaths at about the same time. There were several hundred more until the recent cease fire, and there remains substantial Israeli control of the fuel, food, and other supplies that reach Gaza.
The situations in the north and south are far from ideal. Neither Hamas or Hizbollah can offer the assurances of a state. Problematic agreements may unravel at any moment. We would prefer both organizations to control their borders out of love for Israel. Lacking that, we will settle for control out of fear.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Home tel: 972-2-532-2725
Cell phone: 054-683-5325
Fax: 972-2-582-9144
msira@mscc.huji.ac.il