Ehud Olmert's problems have deepened, with accusations that he doubled-, tripled-, and quadrupled-billed for his overseas trips while Mayor of Jerusalem and Minister of Trade and Commerce. His lawyers and supporters assert that the violations are technical, the fault of bureaucrats, and trivial. Countering this are claims that Olmert's profits exceed US $100,000, that he managed the techniques employed, and used the money for family travel.
We hear competing reports of a government that is not functioning alongside claims of business as usual. Some prophets predict that the prime minister will resign this month. Others say he will dig in, and take advantage of legal and political realities that make it difficult to carry him off against his will.
The legal and political work involved in all of this may not end quickly. Pending that, it is interesting to consider the personalities who are jostling to become the next prime minister.
The candidates in the Kadima Party are
Tzipi Livni, currently serving as Foreign Minister, and who has served in ranking administrative and political positions for more than two decades that include service as Ministers of Justice, Immigrant Absorption, and Agriculture;
Abraham Dicter, currently Minister of Public Security with responsibility for the police, and formerly the head of the General Security Agency (Shin Bet);
Meir Shitrit, currently Minister of the Interior, who began his political career as a mayor, and has served in numerous ministerial positions including Justice, Transportation, Education, and Finance;
Shaul Mofaz, currently the Minister of Transportation and formerly commanding general of the IDF and then Minister of Defense.
The major candidate in the Labor Party is Defense Minister Ehud Barak. He served as commanding general of the IDF, and then a previous term as Defense Minister, and Prime Minister.
Benyamin (Bibi) Netanyahu is the leading candidate from Likud. His background includes service as Ambassador to the United Nations, Prime Minister, and Finance Minister.
Compare these folks to the candidates running for the American presidency. Neither of the Americans has any major administrative experience, and Obama has yet to serve a full term in a national position.
None of the above assures that Israel's government will function better than the American government. The head of government is only one factor in determining national fortunes. Arguably the national fortune is more important, and the American fortune dwarfs that of tiny Israel. Neighbors are also important. Israelis would be willing to trade the Arabs and Persians for the Canadians and Mexicans.
One can think of the comparative benefits of heroes or managers as national leaders.
No doubt that the public admires heroic promises to solve big problems. Think of the Kennedy and Johnson missions to deal with Communism in Vietnam, and George W. Bush's mission to settle the problems of evil and terror coming out of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Management is dull, and gives up the dream of peace or prosperity without blemish. On the positive side, it is less dangerous than heroism. Managers want to improve things, but "Do not make it worse" is a prime motto.
Israel benefits from the small size of its fortune. Neither current nor potential leaders propose to conquer or reform the enemies. Experience has put the emphasis on limited use of the military, and limited occupation of hostile territory.
Things are far from optimal. Hizbollah has rearmed, and that Hamas is doing what it can to prepare for nasty things. Israel's threats against them may be enough to keep them quiet. Each has learned what the IDF can do.
Iran is another story. If an attack comes, we can hope that it is well managed. There has been a great deal of preparation, and extensive discussions of likely consequences.
Again this is a time to envy the Norwegians. They have both fortune and decent neighbors. As far as I know, heroism has not part of the national character since the Vikings.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Home tel: 972-2-532-2725
Cell phone: 054-683-5325
Fax: 972-2-582-9144
msira@mscc.huji.ac.il