Someone out there should convince the Palestinians that their side lost the wars of 1948 and 1967. Moreover, they did not score a stunning victory in the first intifada 1987-93. Currently some of them are threatening to begin a third intifada. That suggests that the second is finished. If so, it passed without any Palestinian success. Some might claim that it is still on, with the IDF having to add nightly to its stock of more than 11,000 prisoners, and keeping the people of Gaza on short rations.
We do not want to educate Palestinians about history for the sake of Israeli bravado, but for the sake of Palestinians' future. Until they accept reality, they will not achieve a state, or significant control over their own lives.
Why is it necessary to make this clear now?
Mahmoud Abbas is complaining to President Bush that the Israelis are not willing to begin discussions from the borders that existed prior to the war of 1967. He said that the Palestinians need help in pressuring the Israelis if there is to be an agreement before the end of the Bush presidency. Reports are that Bush did not give Abbas what he wanted.
Perhaps we should view it as a Palestinian concession that Abbas is not demanding a return to the allocations for Jewish and Arab states that the United Nations indicated prior to the 1948 war. Prime Minister Olmert is quoted as telling Abbas that the Palestinians can forget everything on Israel's side of the security barrier that Israel is building. Much of that is close to the 1967 line, but on the Palestinian side; and it encompasses the major Israeli settlements built since then.
Abbas also says that he cannot give up the right of refugees to return home.
He is on a yellow brick road; not a path to peace.
In terms of territory, Abbas is saying that he is willing to concede to Israel, at most, three to four percent of the Palestinian West Bank. He is saying that Olmert is willing to grant, at most, 65 percent of the Palestinian West Bank; insists on Israeli control of the Jordan Valley and Jerusalem, with provisions for Palestinian autonomy in parts of Jerusalem.
There is likely to be some wiggle room in these details, but the reality is that Palestinians have not done well when they threaten, or embark on violence. They succeed in killing Israelis, but usually lose more of their own people, and end up losing more of the land that they say is theirs.
Hamas is not doing any better in Gaza. After Israel rejected the cease fire that Hamas claimed to draft along with Egypt, it is saying that it is not a Hamas proposal. It is an Egyptian proposal, which Hamas will consider only after Israel has accepted it. Moreover, Hamas has hardened details of the offer since they first became public. It also proclaims that if it decides to accept the Egyptian proposal, its move will only be tactical and temporary. It will not give up the goal of destroying Israel. If Israel rejects the Egyptian proposal, it will suffer the consequences.
Goody. The proud people in charge of Gaza must be satisfied that they have electricity a few hours a day, and enough gasoline for 20 percent of their vehicles. They enjoy watching Israeli tanks in their streets. They like walking in the heat and hitching rides on donkey carts. We will rely on the United Nations to assure that the donkeys have enough to eat.
I aspire to a Palestinian state that is run responsibly alongside of Israel. It should prevent Palestinians from terrorizing one another and the Israelis, and provide decent levels of social services. I doubt that a Palestinian state will exist until the Palestinian leadership accepts the reality of its mistakes, and the weakness that has resulted from those mistakes. They cannot turn back the clock that has been running through several waves of Palestinian violence over the course of six decades. If their expectations and demands are much greater than Israelis are willing to concede, they will not get an agreement, their own state, and a decent future for themselves as a nation.
We should not expect the Palestinian leadership to approach Israel on their knees. Arabs have pride.
Israel will make concessions. Good sense also demands that Israel minimize its efforts at self-defense in order to avoid exerting so much pressure on the Palestinians that they erupt in yet another wave of violence, no matter how futile.
Negotiators can maintain their pride, but they must remain within the range of what is likely.
Palestinians negotiating with Israel must perceive what is possible, and persuade their people about the wisdom of accepting it. They cannot erase 60 or 40 years of failed efforts at violence.
The essence of warfare is that fighters aspire to hold what they can take, or hold onto what they are defending. The essence of politics is to seek what is possible. As the Prussian soldier and theorist Carl von Clausewitz wrote 180 years ago, war and politics resemble one another, except that politics is far less costly for the participants than warfare. And in politics done with skill, no one loses everything.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Home tel: 972-2-532-2725
Cell phone: 054-683-5325
Fax: 972-2-582-9144