There is a lot of smoke in the air. No fire is apparent. The smoke may be nothing more than what is coming from the bellies of politicians. The energy source may be mischief or some greater motive. For us poor folk sitting on the sidelines, the result is a great deal of confusion. What is happening, if anything, that may affect us?
One source of smoke is Syria, in an announcement that President Assad has heard from the Turkish Prime Minister that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is willing to return the whole of the Golan Heights in exchange for peace.
Jewish residents of the Golan and their supporters are in high panic. Knesset members, including leading figures in Olmert's own party, say they would not approve such a deal.
So far, no one is selling bus tickets to Damascus.
Saner heads are asking what does Olmert mean by the whole of the Golan, and peace. Israelis and Syrians have scuttled agreements in the past by not agreeing about the geography. "Peace" is likely to involve a great deal that Syria is not willing to concede, such as ending its role as Iran's agent and support for Hamas and Hizbollah. Iranian officials have already said that they oppose any accommodation that Syria might be seeking with the Zionist devil. We may be a long way from that bus ride to Damascus.
The source of this smoke may be involved with other smoke that is confusing us. Since last September Israel has not quite admitted bombing a Syrian nuclear facility.
An explanation for Olmert's interest in a peace process between Israel and Syria, via Turkey, is to keep Syria from retaliating for that strike. An explanation for Assad's interest is to keep the Americans at bay. The United States is not happy with Syria for serving as Iran's agent, for supporting terrorist organizations, and for aid to the fighters who kill Americans in Iraq.
Smoke is also coming from the United States Congress, in the form of hearings into North Korean aid for Syria's nuclear activities. This has something to do with the Bush administration's concern that North Korea really give up its nuclear program, and not simply transfer technology to another rogue state. Israelis are not altogether happy with American revelations of the IDF's destruction of the Syrian facility. We have known this for at least six months, but the news has not had the imprimatur of the United States Congress. Syria is denying allegations that there was a nuclear program with military intentions, done with the aid of the North Koreans. We are hoping that they are not prompted to move forward with plans to retaliate against targets in Israel, or Jewish institutions elsewhere.
Our American friends might want to increase security at their synagogues and community centers, and bill the United States Congress for the cost.
Yet other smoke is coming from Egypt and Hamas. They have produced the draft of a cease fire that could prevail between Israel and Gaza for six months, with an option of expanding it to cover the West Bank. Optimists see this as ending Hamas' firing of rockets toward Israel, IDF's activity in Gaza, and lifting Israeli sanctions that have produced suffering in Gaza.
The agreement is conditional on other Palestinian organizations accepting the cease fire. One has already rejected it. It also does not cover two items of importance to Israel: the movement of munitions from Egypt to Gaza, and the manufacture of rockets in Gaza. Moreover, its mention of the Israeli prisoner has increased considerably the price that Hamas is demanding by way of Israel's release of Palestinian prisoners.
United Nations officials in Gaza are upping their support of Hamas. They are threatening to declare once again a humanitarian crisis because there is not enough fuel and other supplies. Israel responds that it has shipped a great deal of material through to Gaza, despite Hamas' attacks on the transfer points. If there is a crisis in Gaza, according to the Israeli view, it is the result of Hamas' efforts to create the impression of suffering by preventing the distribution of supplies from the depots it controls.
There is another bit of smoke that may turn into something larger. Hamas has announced mass marches toward Israeli positions on the northern edge of Gaza, and Egyptian positions on the southern edge. The purpose is to break the blockade on Gaza. In keeping with the proposed cease fire, these are said to be warning marches only, and not full invasions of Israel or Egypt. Perhaps Israeli and Egyptian soldiers can relax.
During the time I have been writing this, four rockets have fallen near Ashkelon, and two Israelis were killed while guarding an industrial facility meant to provide work for Palestinians on the border of the West Bank. One Knesset member has already linked the killings to Israel's reduction of security in response to demands by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. And an Israeli official has announced the rejection of the proposed cease fire for Gaza, saying that it is nothing more than Hamas' effort to buy time while it continues to arm itself.
Even more curious that all of this is news that the Americans have arrested an aged Jewish engineer for transferring secret information to Israel more than 20 years ago. Individuals involved with the prosecution of Jonathan Pollard say that this proves that Israel lied when they said that it had stopped spying in the United States. Currently serving Israeli politicians say that they have no recollection of this newly revealed spy; and that the work he is alleged to have done was prior to the Pollard case.
Israeli antennae are quivering with the hint of conspiracy. Why now, when the alleged spy must be helped in walking from the court room to a car, and then from the car to his residence in a retirement community? One explanation is that it comes from the Justice Department, where bureaucrats are working to frustrate any prospect that George Bush may order the release of Pollard as a gift to Israel on its 60th anniversary. Or that it is simply the effort of ranking Americans who think Israel is getting too feisty, and must be brought down a bit.
There is not always fire where there is smoke. Sometime there is nothing more than people wanting air time. On the other hand, there may come a blaze that has not yet shown itself through the smoke.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
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