It is not the settlements, stupid.
Remember "It's the economy, stupid," which helped Bill Clinton send George H. W. Bush to the coast of Maine and the environs of Houston.
Can this twist change the priorities in Washington, other capitals, and lots of universities? The feeling is widespread, but wrong, that Jewish settlements in the West Bank are the crucial hindrance to any agreement between Israelis and Palestinians. Land is one of the Palestinians' slogans, and they do not miss an opportunity to accuse Israelis of stealing theirs.
Israel made a difficult and testing gesture toward the Palestinians in 2005 by withdrawing all of the Jewish settlements in Gaza.
The result? More than 2,400 rockets, mortars, and assorted other attacks from Gaza directed at civilian settlements in Israel.
In various agreements Israeli governments have committed themselves to stop the expansion of settlements in the West Bank, to remove what are called "illegal settlements," i.e., those not established under the aegis of an Israeli authorization, and to lessen the pressure against Palestinian movement that comes from the roadblocks meant to frustrate terrorists.
In parallel, Palestinian authorities committed themselves to work toward an end of violence and the incitement toward violence, and to reform their government in the direction of greater transparency, efforts against corruption, and judicial proceedings that truly are law abiding.
One can argue as to which side has accomplished the least of its commitments.
Incitement and preparation of violence continues in the West Bank, despite substantial numbers of security personnel employed by the Palestinians. Often it is members of those Palestinian security services who are seized in the IDF sweeps against perpetrators, or killed at the site of their efforts by the IDF.
Palestinians demand an absolute halt to building over the line that separated Israel from the West Bank prior to the 1967 war. Israel responds that it did not commit itself to stop further building in neighborhoods annexed to Jerusalem, or to stop all construction within the borders of other settlements.
The settlers who are most vocal are religious nationalists fanatic about Jewish occupation of the Land of Israel. Secular Israelis and numerous religious Israelis have limited tolerance for their intense and selective quotations from Torah, their implacable hatred of Arabs, and their occasional actions against individual Arabs and olive trees. Yet when the fanatics and moderate settlers remind us what happened when Israel removed settlements from Gaza, the tendency is to listen. When they carry the argument against withdrawing further settlements, it is by persuading centrists and not because of their raw political power. The principal political party that represents them (National Unity-National Religious Party) has only 9 members in the Knesset; and neither it, nor its right wing allies (Likud and Israel our Home) are in the government.
Religious nationalists have tried for 40 years to populate the Land of Israel with their kind of people. They have a larger than average rate of reproduction, but neither that, nor recruitment efforts among religious and secular Israelis has met their aspirations.
There is a new player in the settlement game. Two sizable and growing communities of the ultra-Orthodox are over the pre-1967 border south of Jerusalem and across the road from Modiin. The ultra-Orthodox are not intense about settling the Land of Israel. They want low-cost homes. Their needs reflect large families, early marriage, further generations of large families, the shortage of apartments and increasing prices in their established neighborhoods of Jerusalem and Bnei Brak. There is also the desire of ultra-Orthodox and secular Israelis that the ultra-Orthodox live in their own neighborhoods. There they can close the roads on the Sabbath, ban television, the internet, secular newspapers, non-kosher food, and abominable music, make sure that women dress modestly, and send their young toughs against those who violate the rules.
Until now, Palestinians have campaigned against the settlements on what they call their land, and demanded help in their efforts from the United States and other foreign governments.
In the absence of any serious and prolonged efforts to convince Israelis that they can end violence and incitement in order to live at peace alongside us, their campaign against settlements has limited success. Construction gangs employing Palestinians along with Chinese, Romanians, Turks, and Israelis continue to build within the neighborhoods of Jerusalem and established settlements outside of Jerusalem. Left-wing Israelis and occasionally government ministers speak about withdrawing illegal settlements, but responsible officials show limited enthusiasm for the task.
Most Israelis want to make concessions. But the intensity of those who respond positively to survey questions is not great enough to carry the issue. For people here and abroad who think that Israeli action on settlements would solve the problems of the Middle East, the missing ingredient is Palestinian violence. Gaza remains as the best argument that settlements are not the issue, and the complacency of West Bank Palestinians toward violence reinforces that conclusion.
Palestinians can achieve a state of their own on the West Bank. It will not be a large place. If current realities continue, it will not include Gaza. The road to statehood is not to emphasize Jewish settlements, but to emphasize Palestinian efforts to end the violence. Only that can stop the growth of settlements, and preserve something for a Palestinian state. Without that, the road to Palestinian statehood will end about where it is now.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Home tel: 972-2-532-2725
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