The tacitly agreed period of calm lasted for two weeks. It began to unravel with occasional rockets sent toward Israel, and came to an obvious end on the day that 20 traveled our way.
It lasted longer than what had been declared as an official cease fire some time ago, openly agreed and signed by Israelis and Palestinians. That one began at 6 AM with the withdrawal of Israeli tanks from Gaza, and ended with the first rocket fire toward Israel at 11 AM.
The 20 rockets that came in one day recently may have been retaliation for an Israeli raid that destroyed several empty buildings on the Gaza side of the border. Snipers were using them for cover while firing at kibbutz members plowing their fields. Or the 20 rockets may more simply have been the itchy fingers of Palestinians uncomfortable with calm toward their sworn enemies in Sderot.
Not all is well among the Palestinians in nominal control of the West Bank, which remains the hope of Americans, Europeans, and Israelis wanting two democratic countries living side by side. According to the Jerusalem Post, the Authority is investigating:
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1206446111156&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
The source of a $600 million investment in Jordan being made by a man who served as Yassir Arafat's financial advisor, and more recently as an aide to Mahmoud Abbas
Documents released by the Palestine Authority's ambassador to Romania, indicating that Ahmed Qurei, the chief negotiator with Israel, has embezzled $3 million.
The charge that Qurei and his son are owners of a cement company selling a key ingredient to Israel for the abominable defense barrier and apartments being built on what Palestinians call their land
The charge that another ranking official had tried to smuggle 3,000 cell phones into Israel
Arabs generally are not in much better shape. Reports from the Arab League summit conference in Damascus emphasize key figures not attending rather than any action likely to be taken. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Yemen, and Iraq did not send the customary kings or presidents. Lebanon did not send any representative. The summit is likely to announce its annual allocation in the range of $600-$700 million for the Palestinian Authority. However, members actually delivered only half of last year's allocation.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is on her way to Israel and Palestine. She is likely to spend her time reminding the parties that President Bush insists that negotiations move forward and accomplish something while he is still in office. She will ask Israelis why they have not removed illegal settlements, and roadblocks that hamper Palestinian movement. The Israelis will respond that these actions have been promised, and will be done. Someone is likely to tell her that the steps demanded of Israel are not the moral equivalent of demands that Palestinians stop the violence. Since Israel removed a major block of settlements from Gaza the response has been more than 2,400 rockets. http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Terrorism-+Obstacle+to+Peace/Palestinian+terror+since+2000/Missile+fire+from+Gaza+on+Israeli+civilian+targets+Aug+2007.htm
If the recent past indicates what will happen in the near future, Olmert's government will not bring itself to arouse domestic opposition by removing many, if any, of the illegal settlements. It will ask the IDF's opinion about removing roadblocks. The IDF will document the security risks, and the roadblocks will remain.
Domestic and overseas critics of Israel say that Olmert is too weak, politically, to take the steps necessary to make peace with the Palestinians.
Weak, he may be, dependent on Knesset members from coalition partners and his own party opposed even to discussions about dividing Jerusalem with the Palestinians. But Olmert is a political Hercules compared to Mahmoud Abbas. The Gaza half of Palestine answers to Abbas' enemies, implacably opposed to concessions with the Zionist interloper; Abbas himself has shown time and again that he does not have the will or the capacity to act against Palestinian violence, or incitement to violence in its schools, mass media, or mosques.
I have loaded my MP3 music player with folk songs from my youth: Pete Seeger, Peter, Paul, and Mary, Joan Baez, Johnny Cash, The Highwaymen, Simon and Garfunkel, Bob Dylan, and others. When not otherwise occupied with profound thoughts, I listen to their words while walking the neighborhood and on my way to the university. Insofar as the sources are from the time when Israel evoked positive images among the artsy folk, there are some joyous songs in Hebrew. Most themes are plaintive expressions of failure, misery, and hopes disappointed.
Several of the songs offer appropriate commentary for the past, present, and most likely the future of the Middle East: The road goes on forever; Blowing in the wind; Where have all the flowers gone?.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Home tel: 972-2-532-2725
Cell phone: 054-683-5325
Fax: 972-2-582-9144