Key Israeli and Palestinian officials have been meeting since before the Annapolis conference. We hear that they are negotiating toward principles, or the elements of a final settlement. They have agreed not to release details of their conversations. Some have emerged, but it is difficult to judge if they are hard information, disinformation, non-negotiable demands, or somebody's wishful thinking. (See, for example, http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1203343702790)
What we hear is not encouraging.
The Palestinian prime minister does not think things are moving fast enough. " . . . not enough has happened over the past nearly three months that could suggest to me that a treaty per se is going to be possible (by the end of 2008)."
In recent days the participants have been hung up on discussions about what to discuss. In particular, Jerusalem.
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert cannot admit that he is discussing the division of the city. The topic has become a hot button for right wing and religious Israelis, as well as overseas Jews. No matter that the city sprawls hither and yon over more territory than any other Israeli municipality, and includes Arab neighborhoods that few Jews visit. Some of those neighborhoods are obvious bargaining chips, but the name "Jerusalem" says "holy" and "never again." The city is political tinder.
The SHAS ultra-Orthodox political party, with 12 Knesset members of the 67-member governing coalition, says that it will withdraw if Olmert discusses the division of Jerusalem with the Palestinians.
Olmert has said that he has the agreement of the Palestinians to postpone the discussion of Jerusalem until other issues are settled. That would seem to save his government for the time being.
But oopps. Palestinian leaders deny any such agreement, and say they must discuss Jerusalem along with other important issues.
Is this another one of those times when the Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity?
Or is a lack of willingness to admit flexibility with respect to Jerusalem Israel's stubborn insistence on missing an opportunity?
My guess is that the votes are here for pragmatic concessions on Jerusalem if we can get that far. I fear that the Palestinians will not let us get that far.
If they cannot accept a tactical concession of timing that helps Olmert keep his coalition together, how likely are they to make other compromises from what they have said are their non-negotiable demands?
I have yet to hear a commentator say that there is really any hope to these negotiations. And without Olmert's coalition, there is nothing on the political horizon that would be more promising.
Gaza is a major lump in everybody's throat. Rockets keep flying in the direction of Sderot and other Israeli communities. The IDF has small units in Gaza on a daily basis. It frequently takes prisoners or has its helicopters fire a missile that removes yet another figure from its wanted list.
Palestinian negotiators object to this level of active defense as violations of international law that make it impossible for them to negotiate. One can imagine what they would say about a larger scale invasion that might resemble the 2006 war in Lebanon. That would mean at least 1,000 Palestinians killed and whole neighborhoods reduced to rubble. The IDF is planning something like that. Prime Minister Olmert, Defense Minister Barak, and ranking officers of the IDF are not inclined to take the risk of heavy Israeli casualties, but continued attacks on Israeli civilians may require a large response.
Palestinian negotiators come from the Fatah party that Hamas expelled from Gaza after a short but bloody civil war. Israel's prime minister has said that he will not make peace with Palestinians when part of their country is in the hands of Hamas and other factions committed to Israel's destruction.
What is the answer of Fatah? The Palestinian prime minister says that progress in peace talks will create "a positive dynamic," generating support in Gaza for the Fatah government."
In other words, Israel should bring about renewed Fatah control of Gaza by making concessions that Fatah wants in the peace talks.
This sounds like pie in the sky, as well as a continuation of the Palestinian mantra: why should we solve our own problems, when someone else is responsible for them, and must solve them for us.
Even if a miracle happens and Hamas concedes Gaza to Fatah by recognizing that Israel really is peace loving, this seems unlikely to help the residents of Sderot. When Fatah was in control of Gaza, with perhaps 30,000 individuals in its security forces there, it was unable or unwilling to stop the rockets.
If God helps those who help themselves, the Palestinians are in trouble. Their often proclaimed misery produces no end of free food and sympathetic lip service. It will take more on their part to achieve a state.
Ira Sharkansky (Emeritus)
Department of Political Science
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Home tel: 972-2-532-2725
Cell phone: 054-683-5325
Fax: 972-2-582-9144