In response to my last note indicating a continued decline in Israelis killed by Palestinian violence, one of my American friends asked about Israeli murders.
His question sent my back to the Statistical Yearbook, and to the American equivalent for comparative data.
I found that the Israeli police recorded 189 cases of murder in a recent year, and the Americans 17,000. The incidence per 100,000 population was 2.6 in Israel and 6.3 in the United States.
Some years ago Israel's population was about the size of metropolitan Detroit. Then I found more murders per weekend in Detroit than all year in Israel.
My most recent letter indicated that the annual incidence of Israelis killed by Palestinian violence declined from 452 in 2002 to 13 in 2007
My friend's letter also prompted me to look at traffic deaths. Israeli alarmists claim that our drivers are the worse in the world. I did not do a comprehensive survey, but I did find that they could be no worse than the second most dangerous, after American drivers. The numbers show about 6 road fatalities per 100,000 in Israel, and about 14 in the US. I suspect the occasionally shooting or knifing associated with an argument about a parking space affects the rate of murders, and not traffic deaths.
Alcohol is probably the best explanation for the difference in traffic deaths. Even with a spike in the sale of vodka with the arrival of one million immigrants from the former Soviet Union, Israelis still drink less than Americans.
I closed my message to the friend who inquired about murders with a suggestion that he come and visit. It would be safer here than in his home town, including a more secure ride from the Tel Aviv airport than to the airport from which he would depart.
The day after I sent this optimistic message, a brochure entitled, "Guide for an Emergency Situation," produced by the Homeland Security department of the IDF, arrived in Israeli mailboxes.
I recalled getting something similar during the 1950s or 1960s in the United States, concerned with preparing for a nuclear attack.
The current Hebrew version (with an invitation to call a toll free number for material in English, Russian, or Arabic) does not deal with a nuclear attack, but focuses on picking out a space in one's home most likely to be secure, stocking water, food, and first aid supplies, as well as material that can be used to seal the space against poison gas. Those who read only French, Spanish, Amharic, Turkish, Romanian, Bulgarian, Portuguese, or whatever are likely scratching their heads.
The brochure has separate chapters for the parents of children in various age groups, as well as the physically limited, autistic, and the aged. I read the last one closely.
Until a year or so ago, we all had gas masks. The IDF collected them in order to refurbish them and update the syringe with an antidote against gas.
Then Syria began to flex its muscles, which include missiles capable of carrying gas. The IDF announced that it could not resupply us quickly, without a lot more money. As a political scientist who did a dissertation on budget strategies, I wondered if it was just a political ploy, or if should I feel more vulnerable.
Being good citizens, we held a family discussion about the best place in the house to prepare for an emergency. I am expecting a shipment of bottled water and canned goods, along with plastic sheeting and tape to keep out the bad stuff.
While writing this note my email pinged with a note from a scholar affiliated with a distinguish British university.
He begins:
In reality, there is no fundamental difference between the ultimate goals of Hamas and the PLO vis-à-vis Israel: Neither accepts the Jewish state's right to exist and both are committed to its eventual destruction. The only difference between the two groups lies in their preferred strategies for the attainment of this goal.
He concludes:
The Israeli government and the international community will be dangerously deluding themselves in continuing to view Abbas' adamant refusal to fight terrorism as a reflection of political weakness (as they did with Arafat in the early Oslo years) and his avowed commitment to "the right of return" as a bargaining chip or lip service. To deny the depth of the PLO's commitment to Israel's destruction is the height of folly, and to imagine that it can be appeased through Israeli concessions is to play into its hands. Only when Palestinians reconcile themselves to the existence of the Jewish state and eschew their genocidal hopes will the inhabitants of the Holy Land, and the rest of the world, be able to look forward to a future less burdened by Arafats and their gory dreams.
I think that my American friend can still risk a visit, but there are no guarantees.