I spent a lot of time with Erich, my late father-in-law, during the 20 years that I knew him. Often we quarreled about the present and the future. He was a peace loving optimist, as well as being proud of his service as a fighter for Israel. He did not want to die until there was peace in Israel. I hated to disappoint him with my numbers and my rhetoric.
Now I am about as old as Erich was when we began our quarrels. If an optimistic yearning for peace increases with age, it has not yet touched me.
I continue to view Palestinian violence as chronic, with ups and downs in its incidence.
Numbers vary due to sources and definitions. What follows are my efforts at getting decent numbers from a variety of Israeli and international sources.
(See http://www.mfa.gov.il/mfa/history/history%20of%20israel/HISTORY-%20The%20State%20of%20Israel; http://www1.idf.il/SIP_STORAGE/DOVER/files/7/21827.doc; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Israel-Lebanon_crisis; http://domino.un.org/UNISPAL.NSF/d9d90d845776b7af85256d08006f3ae9/be07c80cda4579468525734800500272!OpenDocument)
The first years of the record show one or no deaths per year for four of the years from 1920 through 1928. There were 119 deaths during the riots of 1929, then less than 2 per year, and again an increase to 62 annually during the Palestinian revolt of 1936-40. After a lull to less than 5 per year, there was an increase to 72 per year from 1946 that carried through the first decade of Israeli independence. There were 379 civilian deaths in 1948. Ten per year died 1958-67, then another rise to 45 during 1968-75 . There was a one-year spike to 47 in 1978, but except for that year the average was less than 14 per year from 1976 to 1988. An average of 49 Israelis died per year during 1989-97 (first intifada through the false honeymoon of the Oslo Accords). There was a two-year lull with 16 and 8 deaths, then the most recent peak of intifada al-Aqsa. The most recent annual figures (including both military and civilians) show a peaking and a sharp decline: 47 deaths from late September through the end of 2000, 207 deaths in 2001, 452 in 2002, 214 in 2003, and then 118, 42, 32, and 13 from 2004-2007.
Separate from these figures are Israeli war deaths: 6,000 killed in the 1948 war of independence, 231 in the 1956 Sinai campaign, 776 in the "six day war" of 1967, 1,424 in the "war of attrition" between Egypt and Israel from 1967 to 1970, 2,700 in the Yom Kippur War 1973, and 1,216 in the Lebanese war from 1982 until the end of May, 1985; and 163 in Lebanon II (2006).
Comparison can make the picture look bloody or benign. More than 22,300 Israeli soldiers and civilians have died in seven wars, plus numerous incidents of terror during 60 years as an independent country. In relative terms, taking account of population differences, that is more than 11 times the incidence of American soldiers who died in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and elsewhere since World War II, plus the civilian deaths of 9/11.
However, larger numbers of Israelis (400-450 annually during recent years) have died in road accidents.
Yet another comparison shows that the Palestinians have suffered more casualties. Since September, 2000 to the end of July, 2007, 4,228 Palestinians died as the result of the violence, compared to 1,024 Israelis. Moreover, the proportions have changed to the disadvantage of the Palestinians: for every one Israeli death in 2007 there were 25 Palestinian deaths, compared to 2002 when the ratio was 1:2.5. And in recent years, the Palestinians have been killing one another more than they have killed Israelis, or Israelis have killed Palestinians. In 2005, only 4% of the total Palestinian deaths were at the hands of other Palestinians. In 2006, the figures rose to 17% and in 2007 65%.
How would I summarize all these numbers?
Palestinian violence is chronic. Just yesterday, a Palestinian gang killed two Israeli soldiers while they were on leave and hiking near Hebron. Before they died, the Israelis managed to kill two of the Palestinians and wound two others. There has been another wave of attacks on Israeli cars traveling Route 443, one of the two main roads between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. Right wing politicians cite these events in their claims that it is useless to negotiate with Mahmoud Abbas, who either cannot or will not control violence in the West Bank, where he is formally in charge.
The incidence of violence has dropped to one of its historic lows. Currently fashionable among security forces is a policy of avoiding a costly onslaught against Palestine, and not aspiring to control Palestinians. Israel invests heavily in intelligence, and its forces sweep in and out of the West Bank and Gaza in pursuit of specific targets. The kill and capture ratios are highly favorable to Israel, in part because its forces do not remain as convenient targets for the Palestinians. Moreover, the frequent incursions keep violent Palestinians on the defensive. They worry about who is informing on them, and must constantly prepare for another incursion. As a result, they have limited opportunities to plan their own attacks.
There remain individual catastrophes for Israelis and their families, but Palestinian violence does not represent a threat to the existence of the society. Indeed, the national aspirations of the Palestinians seem more in danger. International powers have tired of Palestinian demands for someone to rescue them while Palestinian rhetoric remain committed to Israel's destruction (Hamas and other Islamists), and to an unrealistic right of refugees to return to a life they had 60 years ago (Fatah, as well as Hamas and the Islamists). Demands for our destruction, and for going backwards in history, also hinder serious negotiations toward an end to the violence.
Our glass is more than half full. Hopefully, it will be a while until the next spike of Palestinian violence. We cope with our neighbors as some of us cope with old age and chronic disease. Israeli hi-tech remains on the cutting edge. The major Tel Aviv stock market index increased by 25 percent this year, compared to 4 percent for the American S&P 500.
So far so good.
In a spirit of guarded optimism, I can wish you all a Happy New Year.