Every once in a while the Israeli tiger has to roar, and perhaps do a bit more than that.
Commentators are saying that was part of last month's operation in Syria, which is said to have taken out a nuclear facility being built with the technical aid of North Korea and the money of Iran.
Threat, or warning, is the name of the game. It is less costly than massive violence for the initiator and the antagonist who might be contemplating harm.
Most commentators say that Israel lost its threat capacity as a result of a less than final victory in the 2006 Lebanon war. I do not agree. Few victories are final. American veterans of Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq should know better. Israel did enough damage in Lebanon to scare the army of that country to move for the first time in its history against extremist Palestinians and others.
Will the attack on Syria convince the Syrians and their Iranian friends to behave? We should not expect words of compliance, but they might ratchet down their intentions. Muslims have their pride. They always proclaim total victory. Also, the Syrians can be vicious, especially against soft targets. Israel may be too hardened for them, but I would urge those attending an American synagogue or Jewish cultural center to look over their shoulder from time to time.
Those who talk about such things on Israeli media say that the next target is likely to be Gaza, where homemade missiles are fired against Sderot and elsewhere, and where more powerful things are being carried in the tunnels under the Egyptian border. There may be something big, perhaps delayed in order to avoid damage to the Annapolis conference. For the time being, it may be enough to keep sending small army units into one or another Gaza community each night, doing a bit of damage, seizing some of the wanted, and collecting intelligence to guide subsequent incursions.
Again the point is to do as little as necessary to threaten, in the hopes of minimizing one's own casualties and keeping the international humanitarians at bay. The United States felt it had to do more after 9-11. We have yet to see if all those casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan are worth it.
Life can be tough. There are not likely to be final victories. Nature is prettier; if not this year next year; if not here then somewhere else.
Annapolis is on our agenda. The date is not yet certain. It may never happen, despite the Bush administration's desire to go out with an accomplishment in the Middle East. If any of you expect anything dramatic to happen in Annapolis, I suggest that you prepare for a disappointment. There will be words of success. There always are. It will be more satisfying to go outside and look at a tree.
Posted by Ira Sharkansky at October 20, 2007 09:56 AM