We cheered, or at least sighed with relief when the Berlin Wall came down along with other indications that the Soviet Union and the Cold War were passing into history.
It has, for the most part, been a good twenty years with the United States of America as the primary world leader.
Many of us are living better and longer, the European Union has taken hold and expanded, China and India are leading beneficiaries of globalization, and the brightest spots in what we had been uniform Third World misery.
However, on two fronts now affecting many of us, American political and economic leaders have performed as bad as any could have feared.
The invasion and occupation of Iraq was anything but a work of governmental genius. No weapons of mass destruction; no connection with 9-11; no signs of democracy coming out of the civil war the Americans have produced. There is an increase of Islamic vengeance and crusades against America, the West, and anything Christian or Jewish.
Now we are paying the price of American economic genius. Lots of entrepreneurs piled onto the idea of making money by handing out mortgages to people who might not have the capacity to pay them back, especially when something would disturb the prospect of ever-increasing real estate values. Could not all those money managers, being paid salaries and bonuses of millions per year, learn anything from the dot.com frenzy of a few years earlier? It might be a stretch to expect them to connect their enthusiasm for junk mortgages with the Dutch tulip frenzy of the 1630s.
Part of the genius involved in the most recent investment craze is to hive off, package, and distribute the risks in a variety of ways that only a super genius can understand. For the rest of us, it means a worsening of the crash as it spreads to financial institutions participating in the protective mechanisms around the world. Some of our pension funds may have enjoyed the party without realizing the risks they were buying. The number and complexity of the instruments complicates any reckoning of how great the damage, and how long it may take for the banks, governments, and other lofty institutions to calm the markets.
One day the Americans will put a fig leaf on their departure from Iraq. My guess is that a program of Iraqization will create an authority that will last long enough for the final Marine to leave. Sooner or later someone like Saddam Hussein will emerge to impose order. It will not be pretty. Decent people all over America will cluck their tongues in expressions of regret, dismay, or sorrow. Some may feel a sense of responsibility for the losses suffered, and the gains not realized between Saddam I and Saddam II.
The economic crisis linked to sub-prime mortgages may pass more quickly. In the process we can expect media coverage of pensioners trying to make do on reduced incomes, and once-proud homeowners living rough.
Should we think beyond the era of American leadership and aspire to another great power?
China is not ready. When it is, our children or grandchildren can hope that it has passed beyond the nastiness of repression, and the lack of interest in health and safety. A world leader cannot sell toys with dangerous magnets or lead paint.
Western Europe is an attractive model. It works hard to keep itself clean, healthy, and safe. Its cities function for visitors and natives. Small towns are scenic and viable. Main roads are free of potholes, and public transportation is worth copying. Industries pay African countries to take their toxic waste. Vacation packagers send middle- and working class customers to resorts in the pretty spots on the outskirts of places where most of them would not like to live. Governments give money to organizations representing a wide range of what someone thinks is politically correct. The Danes have apologized to the Irish for what the Vikings did to them.
Except for lip service and some money, Europeans do not seem to care what happens outside of itself. Members of the European Union do not aspire to be world leaders, and do what they can to minimize the power of any other country that would lead.
The European model is not perfect, but it is no worse than the Americanization of Iraq or sub-prime mortgages.
What does this mean for the Jews?
We have accommodated ourselves to a long list of imperial powers. Usually we have done well and survived, as well as suffered.
As far as we can see into the future, Israel will do as the Americans desire, or at least some of what they desire while avoiding more danger than we can tolerate. We also cozy up to the Europeans. We continue to require English of our students, and offer courses in French, German, Spanish, Russian, Arabic, and Chinese.