The demands and reports are piling up. Commentators and opposition politicians are clamoring that Israel should invade Gaza and wipe out Hamas. Or at least cut off the supplies of fuel, electricity, water and food, and let them suffer. Reports are that the Israeli air force is practicing long distant flights in preparation for the big thing in Iran. Will it take out only the nuclear facility, or also go after the missiles likely to send conventional explosives toward Israel in retaliation? Every second or third day another expert predicts that this summer will see another war on the northern border, involving Hezbollah or even Syria. Doom sayers report that the IDF has not corrected any of the mistakes apparent the last time: bomb shelters across the north are still in miserable shape, and fighting units still do not have all the equipment they will need.
Meanwhile, the government does not seem to be doing much in any of these directions. Today's headlines deal with a committee meeting to select some new justices for the Supreme Court, and the likelihood that the prime minister will shuffle some of his colleagues among the ministries. There will be a meeting in Egypt where the prime minister will pass on several hundred million dollars held in escrow to Mahmoud Abbas, perhaps make some other gestures to strengthen him in the eyes of the Palestinians, and maybe some demands that Abbas move against Palestinian violence or do other things to give Israelis more confidence in him.
There is so much to do, and so many critics in Israel and overseas demanding steps in the direction of war (mostly from the right) and accommodation (mostly from the left).
There are good reasons for doing nothing from among the heroic options being urged.
Waiting gives the other sides (and there are several of them) time to make a mistake and give Israel a more justifiable reason for taking action. If the IDF moves against Gaza, Hezbollah, or Syria, it will help if there is understanding or even support from the United States and Europe. No other country counts for much.
Much of the criticism of last year's war deals with the onset of the operation with inadequate of preparation, ranging from meager training of the troops, and especially the reserves, to inadequate equipment. At least some training and equipping is occurring. It is never enough for critics who want all the resources for their need of the moment. We may never see if it is adequate, especially if the doom sayers are mistaken in their prophecies.
Small actions may be better than big. Letting Hamas dangle in Gaza with a minimum of resources, and being at the focus of Arab as well as western criticism, may dissuade it from violence, at least for the time being. Postponing confrontation is not all that wrong. If it comes, we may be better prepared, with more convincing reasons for what we do. In the north, the Lebanese army is doing our work. It is not tackling the Hezbollah, but is going after Palestinians. It may get to Hezbollah if we give it a chance.
An attack on Iran should be a option only in extremis. It would assure Israel a great deal of criticism, and a rain of missiles in return. They may only carry conventional explosives, but I hope they do not fall on my house. Optimists see the impact of economic sanctions. They might be not be decisive in the immediate future with respect to moving the Iranians from a nuclear option, but there seems to be a willingness to increase their severity. It is not certain that time will work against Israel. Sanctions and a few goodies seem to have worked on North Korea. Force has not proved useful in Iraq. It is wise to put off an apocalyptic action as long as possible.
There remain unresolved injustices against Israel. Three soldiers are still being held in Gaza and Lebanon, assuming they are still alive. The President of Iran and the men in charge of Gaza are calling for our destruction. Syria is rearming with Iranian money and Russian equipment. Hezbollah claims to have replenished its supply of missiles, with 20,000 now ready to send in our direction.
Life is worrisome. Yet it is time to remember one of the cardinal rules of making public policy: do not make things worse.
George W. Bush violated that rule when he sent his military into Iraq. The United States is large, rich, and far away from the sources of threat. Americans can view the European Union as a bunch of small countries, and dismiss their criticisms as mere nuisance. If the anti-Americanism heats up, there is always the veto in the United Nations Security Council.
Ehud Olmert has to do better.