Conventional wisdom, widely heard from commentators and politicians in Israel and abroad, is that the government of Ehud Olmert failed greatly in last year's war in Lebanon; and that the government of Palestine (West Bank) headed by Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazan) is the great hope for creating a viable Palestinian state and making peace with Israel.
There is something wrong with the conventional wisdom.
On the one hand, the war waged by the IDF, under the direction of the Olmert government, did a great deal of damage to Lebanon at the cost of the fewest Israeli casualties of any war in the country's history. The IDF left Lebanon soon after the fighting, without bloodying itself by the occupation of a hostile population.
Indications are that the Lebanese government learned a lesson, and for the first time has used its army to defend its country against hostile Palestinians, Lebanese, and others. Since the war the fighters of Hezbollah have done little more than fly their flag near the Israeli border. The international force that came to Lebanon is doing less than promised to keep the Hezbollah from rearming, but Hezbollah has not flexed its muscles, and it has not done all that much to repair the repair the damage suffered by its supporters.
It is always too early to talk about preventing the next war, but so far it seems that Israel came out on top in the last war.
On the other hand, the regime led by Mahmoud Abbas folded in less than a week of serious fighting in Gaza, despite considerable aid from outside. When he had a monopoly of power, before the electoral success of Hamas, Abbas' 30,000 security personnel in Gaza did nothing to stop the 200 or so Palestinians who fired their homemade rockets from a small area into Israel.
Abbas speaks in behalf of peace, but he also recites the litany of Palestinian demands--including the right of refugees to return home--that are the kiss of death for any prospect of an agreement with Israel. The political operators who surround him are known less for building a decent society than for opulent dwellings and otherwise taking care of themselves with the financial aid received from overseas.
There is pressure on Israeli authorities, from inside and outside the country, to provide humanitarian aid to Gaza, especially for the hundred or so refugees holed up at one of the Gaza-Israeli border crossings. Their women know how to wail for the media. The children look miserable. Most of the men are the failed fighters of Fatah, now afraid of retribution from Hamas. At least some of them had used their weapons against Israel. They do present a sad picture demanding a response from someone. So far Israel has refused to let them pass to the West Bank, partly out of a concern with their background, and partly to avoid triggering a mass flight to Israel from Gaza. Israel offered to transfer this group to Egypt, but the Egyptians refused to accept them.
Egypt can also honor its agreement to stop the flow of arms from the Sinai into Gaza, and to keep Sudanese refugees from crossing the Sinai and entering Israel. Those wanting us to accept the refugees with open arms claim that they come from Dafur, but that is seldom true. There are a lot of Africans who would like to live in Israel. Those who worry about the future see the 50 or so who arrive daily as the beginning of yet another strategic threat on the horizon.
Uncertainty remains the theme, but the weather is good and the planes are still flying. Visitors welcome.