The bloodshed and the destruction in Gaza should be no surprise. Properties belonging to ranking Fatah personnel, and to Yassir Arafat, have been looted and burned. We see pictures of Palestinians walking away with television sets, plumbing facilities, computers, and window frames. It's almost as bad as New Orleans.

Heads of Arab governments are saying meaningless things about negotiating peace between Hamas and Fatah. Fatah personnel who fled to Egypt are being sent back to Gaza on the basis of Hamas promises that they will not be harmed.

Hamas and its friends have their own conception of what to do with individuals they accuse of fighting against them, or cooperating with the Israelis. I would not pay the insurance premiums of Palestinians who the Egyptians are sending back.

From all signs, there are now two Palestines. One in the West Bank ruled by Fatah, which may be strong enough there to hang on; and one in Gaza ruled by Hamas. In both cases, "rule" is not what one expects in orderly countries. Extended families control their neighborhoods, are armed to the teeth, hold hostages (like the Israeli soldier and the British journalist), and are managing their own foreign policy.

Israeli leftists are expressing concern for their friends in Palestine, but tending not to name their friends, perhaps out of fear that they will mark them for something unpleasant in the extreme.

Israel controls the supply to Gaza of food, fuel, most of the electricity, and much of the fresh water. It also controls the export of agricultural goods that comprise an important part of Gaza's economy. Some officials and commentators are saying that Israel should make its activities contingent on the freeing of the Israeli soldier and the stopping of rocket attacks on Israeli towns. Others are saying that the IDF is planning a major attack that will destroy Hamas, and is waiting for an appropriate causis belli. That can be any rocket sent toward Israel. Even if its launch does not have Hamas finger prints, Hamas would not have prevented it.

Optimists are saying that power will make Hamas more pragmatic; it has to recognize Israel if it wants the people of Gaza to eat, drink, and keep the lights burning.

Some Fatah officials and their families received Israeli permission to flee Gaza for the West Bank via Israel. One ranking Fatah official said that the "occupation" of Gaza by Hamas is so much more brutal than Israeli occupation as to defy comparison. Another said that Fatah's defeat in Gaza was due to the weakening of Palestinian security forces by Israel's responses from the beginning of intafada. We must have done something to justify the efforts of British academics to boycott Israeli academics.

I recall the rice, flowers, and sweets that Lebanese threw on the first Israeli soldiers who came to free them from Palestinian violence in 1982. Then came the roadside bombs.

It is unwise to predict anything at this point, other than uncertainty.