We have been here before. An extended period of Israeli restraint ended when Palestinian violence became intolerable. A rain of crude missiles on Sderot caused injuries, property damage, and a great deal of anxiety.
Residents of Sderot have been living for years under the constant threat of sirens, running for cover, and then an explosion. Their nerves are exhausted. They are screaming for the government to do something.
Politicians, especially those in opposition, are calling for a massive invasion of Gaza. The calculus is, how many soldiers to sacrifice for the sake of missiles that seldom kill civilians? And whatever solution is chosen will be temporary. The missiles are easy to make and carry, and no one sees an end to a situation where one or another Palestinian political movement, family, or neighborhood gang justifies itself by firing them into Israel.
We also know that Hamas and others are smuggling great quantities of weapons from Egypt. Should the IDF sweep through Gaza and clean out the arsenals before Hamas is ready for a more serious war with Israel? Again, how many soldiers should we sacrifice for the sake of what can only be partial and temporary? Should we threaten war with Egypt in order to stop the smuggling? Or should we content ourselves with preparing the IDF for a major war when it comes, and hope that it does not come?
This increase in missile launches toward Israel is associated with violence among Palestinians. Gaza is in extremis, with chaos on the streets, and rooms full of newspeople huddled together on the floor, each with a cellphone to his (or her) ear, afraid of bullets and kidnappers should they venture outside.
Hamas seems to have the upper hand, but it is not all that clear. The basic warfare is between families and neighborhood gangs, some of which are now aligned with Fatah or Hamas. It is another demonstration that Golda Meier was right: Palestine does not exist. Family, clan, and local loyalties are more important than national identity. With the increased salience of Islam, religious fervor is tying many people to Hamas, but others to movements they consider more purely Islamic than Hamas. Once people are listening to a spiritual voice, there is no limit to how far they may travel.
Whoever was firing the crude rockets employed an element of Middle Eastern logic: by causing enough mayhem among the Jews, and bringing the IDF to kill Palestinians, they may stop Palestinians from killing one another.
There is another bit of Middle East logic: Gazans are urging an Israeli invasion that will stop the chaos. At least for now, they would rather be governed by Jews than by other Palestinians.
We have our own Middle East logic: there are some invitations we should not accept.
IDF attack helicopters are at work, guided to targets by blimps and unmanned aircraft that provide constant cover, each with their cameras (night and day) directed by young men and women in Israel. There is also low tech spying by Palestinians on Palestinians for the sake of Israeli cash and other goodies. This is how we know in which room or in which car we can find targets.
Mahmoud Abbas, the impotent president of Palestine, is staying out of Gaza while he calls on Hamas to accept another cease fire. He cancelled one trip when his people discovered Hamas planning to ambush his motorcade. Now he is calling Condoleezza Rice and others, demanding that American and European governments stop the killing by Israelis. Another idea is to invite international peacekeepers into Gaza. To protect who from who?
So far we have the endorsement of the White House and the State Department. "Israel has a right to defend itself, and has shown considerable restraint until now." That will last until one of the smart missiles makes a mistake and kills too many women, children, or old men.
Deaths from Israeli airstrikes are starting to compete with the numbers of Palestinians killed by Palestinians. Those of us who remember Vietnam know that body counts do not produce victory. Quality is more important than quantity. When our helicopters manage to pick off enough of the key people, or when they tire of living in the cellars, the next element in the scenario will come into play: a Palestinian declaration of cease fire. It will not cover all who make, carry, and fire the crude missiles, but with pressure from the outside it may produce another period of Israeli restraint. That will last until the next time Palestinian violence becomes intolerable.