We are stuck with a period of political uncertainty. Perhaps that is obvious. Politics is a craft of uncertainty. But this is more uncertain than usual.
Some calculations:
The interim report of the government committee to investigate Lebanon II was highly critical of the prime minister, defense minister, and the chief of the IDF general staff. However, it was not so critical as some committees that have reported on previous issues, that demanded the resignation of key figures. The chief of the IDF general staff resigned in January, and is studying at Harvard. The prime minister and defense minister are holding on.
Compared to other military activities, the results of Lebanon II do not seem all that bad. It punished Lebanon, and Israel's casualties (military and civilian) were less than in any previous war. The performance was better than Kennedy's Bay of Pigs; Johnson's management of Vietnam; and Israel's remaining in Lebanon from 1982 to 2000 with a steady drain of casualties.
An estimated 150,000 people turned out in Tel Aviv to demonstrate their demand for the resignations of the prime minister and defense minister. It was impressive, but not overwhelming. The standard of comparison is the 400,000 who came to protest Israeli actions in Lebanon in 1982.
The foreign minister advised the prime minister to resign, but she followed up with a public presentation widely viewed as weak and vacillating. She is no longer a leading candidate to replace the prime minister.
Lebanon II is not the prime minister's only problem. Continuing inquiries by the State Comptroller and the Attorney General might produce indictments for one or another form of corruption with respect to his actions in previous positions, or his personal property dealings.
Party colleagues of both the prime minister and the defense minister are restive. The defense minister faces a party primary later this month that seems likely to displace him. He is pondering resigning as defense minister before that. The final report of the government committee investigating the war is due in a couple of months. Commentators agree that it is likely to be even more critical than the interim report about the prime minister and other senior people in the government and the IDF.
There is no obvious candidate to replace the prime minister from within his own party. Benyamin Netanyahu is leading in the polls, but the wide government coalition will not be quick to dismantle itself and risk its members' futures in national elections.
The prime minister's party, Kadima, has suffered from the problems of several key members under charge for one kind of criminal infraction or another, but it still owns the center of the political spectrum. Labor and Meretz to the left do not profit from the public's view of Lebanon II. Many, perhaps most, think that the war was not aggressive enough. The threat of Netanyahu coming back to power might be enough to unite the left and center, and weaken those who simply want to rid the country of the prime minister.
Ehud Olmert is a skilled politician, even if he does not score high on credibility or integrity. He is promoting himself as the best person to fix the problems of the military and the government.
This is a terrible time to listen to the radio. It is filled with the blather of established commentators and those who call in. Most are more certain of their conclusions than I. But most are not professors, trained in the art of seeing patterns in uncertainty, and comfortable with balanced ambiguity.