Can a regime commit suicide? The Soviet Union managed it. Now the Palestine National Authority is close to success.
In this case there is a parallel to its favorite weapon: an individual who wraps him- or herself in an explosive belt, and blows to pieces in an effort to kill as many Israelis as possible. It has been a while since we have suffered one of those spectacles. Hopefully the pause will spread out to eternity. Meanwhile, the suicide of the regime continues with two other activities: the continued firing of rockets in the direction of Israel; and the heroic insistence of the Palestinian ruling party that it will never recognize the legitimacy of Israel.
The rockets occasionally make it out of Gaza, and those that do occasionally damage property, cause fright among Israelis, and even more rarely cause injury or death. The weapon is not cost effective. They are cheap, but due to problems of production, transportation, misfiring, or failure to fly out of the Palestinian area, they injure and kill more Palestinians than Israelis. If one adds to the calculation the losses of property and life to Palestinians on account of Israeli efforts to stop those rockets, then the balance of cost over benefit becomes so large as to make a detailed reckoning unnecessary.
Heroic declarations insisting on the illegitimacy of Israel as a foreign body on Muslim land may excite a few of Hamas' followers and gain verbal support in Syria, Iran, parts of Afghanistan and Iraq. But with all that the ruling party cannot pay employees of the Palestine National Authority, operate the schools, or provide hospitals with supplies. Nonetheless, public opinion polls indicate that Hamas might win another election. That would be no surprise In a community that prizes suicide.
The Palestinian prime minister's effort to sound forthcoming is to offer Israel a "cease fire" of perhaps 10 years, on condition that it return to the borders of 1967 and a few other unacceptable demands. But there would be no recognition of Israel's legitimacy, and the cease fire would be temporary. Hamas must not compromise its principles on its road to the cemetery of failed regimes. Is there an equivalent for martyred political parties of the 70 virgins promised in paradise for male suicide bombers?
All this is cute imagery, but what happens to the people while their regime kills itself? And even more important for me, what is likely to happen to their neighbors?
It is not likely to pleasant for them or for us.
When a Palestinian commits suicide, with or without effect on Israelis in the vicinity, it is possible to clean and dispose of the remains in a short time. Not in the case of regime suicide. Palestinian civilians, as well as those who are formally on the payroll of the Palestine National Authority will suffer a loss of critical services, jobs, income, and all the rest of what comprises orderly and rewarding life. One can guess that the society will reduce itself to the components of extended families that look after themselves, and are as likely to feud as to cooperate with other extended families. All the weapons in Palestine will not disappear with the death of the regime. Local arguments over property, opportunity, and insults will add to the misery. This is not the picturesque stuff of Hatfields and McCoys in Appalachia during the 19th century. Bloody feuds among families are the stuff of yesterday and today in Arab towns within Israel, and even more in the chaos of the West Bank and Gaza.
Israel can defend itself from the spillovers of this chaos. The international left will continue to blame us. We will have to live with the occasional insults of Israeli or Jewish tourists or academics (some of them by other Israeli or Jewish academics), an explosion at a Jewish synagogue or community center overseas, and incidents of terror within Israel that manage to evade the efforts of security forces.
It will be a while before the borders between Israel and Palestine are defined clearly, and exist in a condition of peace equivalent to those of borders between the United States and Canada, Western European countries, China and Russia, or even those between Israel and Egypt, Jordan, Syria, or Lebanon.
The worse case scenario is that the suicide of the Hamas regime will end the efforts of Palestinian nation builders. There has never been an independent state called Palestine. There may never be.