I received the following from an American friend:
Ira,
With all the political excitement going on, I am amazed at your silence. I
thought you would be sending out some commentary on the hour!!
-----------------------
As you may know, Ariel Sharon has left the Likud Party, and formed a new
organization, which he calls "Forward." This began with Amir Peretz's
victory over Shimon Peres in Labor Party primaries, and Peretz's insistence
that the government ministers in the party he now leads leave the government
and that there be an early national election. The election has been set for
March 28th.
Sharon says, understandably, that he is tired of fighting Likud Party
figures who keep after him for the disengagement from Gaza. He remains the
most widely supported politician in the country, and his new party is
polling to win 33-36 seats in the next Knesset. Labor under Peretz is
polling at about 10 seats less, and Likud about 10 seats less than Labor.
No other party has made a dent in the poll figures at this point, but all
are likely to be smaller. Which means that after the election it may take a
while to form a coalition government that commands a majority of the 120
seat Knesset, and whatever government emerges is not likely to be taking
dramatic steps under a strong leader who can command wide support in the
Cabinet and the Knesset.
Presently, Forward and Labor are seeking to entice leading figures to their
ranks. Forward gained a decent campaigner from Labor (Haim Ramon), and may
get at least the tacit support of Shimon Peres. Labor has picked up the
attractive and energetic president of Ben Gurion University. He is an
economist who tried to moderate Peretz's image by saying, "He is not a
Communist."
Sharon seems to be running on moderate pragmatism (i.e., I can do it
better). Peretz asserts the need to help the weak. As head of the Labor
Federation, however, he was most active in helping the strong. These are
members of sea port, airport, electric company, and refinery workers'
unions, some of whom do better economically than physicians and professors.
Peretz did little for the workers of some poor local authorities who went
for over a year without receiving salaries.
At this point, Benyamin Netanyahu seems likely to emerge as the leader of
Likud. Some activists there are looking elsewhere in the hope of putting a
more attractive figure at the head of the ticket. They have tried the
current President of Israel, Moshe Katzav, who is a former Likud Member of
Knesset and lower-ranking minister. He is saying no.
It is a great time for political mavens who enjoy the sport of electoral
maneuverings. The party system has been shaken mightily, especially the
major parties. Insofar as parties are the principal creatures that produce
stability in politics, it is wisest to admit that we are at sea, and cannot
predict what will happen on March 28th and after.
Meanwhile, the Palestinians are also active, in advance of an election that
may occur in January. Their governing party is currently having its
primaries. The most prominent winner has been Marwan Bargouti, currently
serving five life sentences for involvement in the murder of Israelis.
Palestinians and some Israelis are demanding his release from jail so he can
serve the blossoming democracy, but I will not bet on that.
Ira Sharkansky
Posted by Ira Sharkansky at November 28, 2005 11:04 AM