No surprise. It is not going smoothly.

Israel is caught in a problem typical of political coping. On the one hand, it wants to help the Palestinians move forward, by lessening its pressure on them while they elect a government that--hopefully-- will be more moderate than that under the control of Yassir Arafat, and capable of making decent accommodations with Israel. On the other hand, it cannot appear soft in the face of continued efforts by Palestinian groups to display their capacity to remain violent.

Reports are that the Palestinians around Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazzan) were embarrassed by the attack on an IDF outpost in Gaza on Sunday night that killed 5 soldiers and wounded a number of others. Nonetheless, the attack occurred, and was trumpeted as a success by Hamas and elements of the PLO supposedly allied with Abbas. The outpost was manned by a unit of Israeli Bedouin soldiers. All of them are volunteers, and the action prompted a day of commentary about the ambivalence of Israel and its Bedouin toward one another and the Palestinians. Arabs in and around Israel are not a seamless, homogeneous community. One has to know the geography and the families. The Middle East is not the Middle West. It's a shame that the Bushies did not learn the lesson. Israelis do not maneuver with complete success among the complexities in this small country, but compared to the Americans in Iraq . . .

Monday a car belonging to a Hamas operative blew up in Damascus. Our work? The Syrians say that it was. This morning (Tuesday) we hear that the IDF is destroying houses and otherwise moving through areas associated with the attack on the IDF outpost, and recent mortar and rocket attacks on Jewish settlements. Army spokespeople say that the IDF is avoiding a full scale and lengthy operation, in the effort to give peace a chance. They also say that Israel and the Palestinians have reached agreements on Israeli pullbacks from Palestinian cities and other acts to facilitate a Palestinian election in January.

It is also not going all that smoothly among the Jews.

People speaking for Labor, Likud, and a couple of ultra-Orthodox parties all said that negotiations about a new governing coalition will be simple and quick. The unspoken portion was that "if they accept our definition of the coalition, it will be quick and easy." But when the parties got to the table and smelled power, their demands seemed to escalate. Labor and the religious parties want the control of important ministries and serious money for the programs dear to them. Likud does not want to give up all the important ministries and depart too much from its tight-fisted economic policy. Also, the parties who are potential coalition partners want some of the same ministries. Typically there is only one minister to a ministry, but its possible to divide some ministries and to appoint deputy ministers. Demands for money are always divisible. But it will take a while to sort through all of this, and to ratchet down from non-negotiable demands.

It is getting close to Christmas. Israeli and Palestinians with responsibility for tourism have committed themselves to facilitate visits to Bethlehem and other holy places. But no one is predicting that a Messiah will come and settle our problems. We will have to do it by ourselves, perhaps with the help of Americans. But it will not be easy. And if history is a guide, it is not likely to happen.