It wasn't quite the "Dewey Wins" headline in the Chicago Tribune the morning after the 1948 election, but Ha'aretz went to press a bit early this Wednesday. Its top of the first page headline was, "Record Turnout in US Election: Surveys Show Advantage to Kerry. The secondary headline cited the Zogby Poll: "Kerry is Winning by Convincing Majority"
Ha'aretz was not alone in misreading the signs. The DowJones Index went from plus to minus on election day afternoon news of large turnout, and the assumption that it would put Kerry in the White House.
What's in it for the Jews? Today's Ha'aretz reports only a slight increase in Jewish support for Bush over 2000; he is said to have received 22 percent of the Jewish vote this year, as opposed to 19 percent in 2000. Jewish Bushies were hoping for more. Some of them spoke about 40 percent. Experts will have better data on this and other aspects of the election. There will be lots of chewing over precinct and survey materials. Reliable analysis of who voted how, and why, will take a while.
Israeli and American Jews did not agree on this one. A survey reported in Ha'aretz showed 70% of Israelis favoring Bush. A query answered by readers of The Jerusalem Post (most of whose readers are Americans) found about 65 percent supporting Kerry.
Most Israelis who have appeared on radio or television are expressing relief at the results: both politicians and talking heads. Along with assertions that it was an election for Americans to decide and it would not be wise for Israelis to express a preference; it is clear that Bush's understanding and support for Israeli government policy is widely appreciated here, and perhaps more than that.
Israeli and American Jews have different needs and perspectives. The Christian right does not threaten Israel; rather it is one of Israel's strongest sources of support. That it also has linkages to the Bush White House adds to Israelis' evaluation of their support. If the Messiah comes or returns in our lifetimes, we can sort out the apocalyptic expectations of what is really in it for the Jews. For American Jews who feel they cannot cope with the Christian right, there is a Zionist solution for their problem.
No Israeli I spoke to, or heard on the media, perceived the American election as a competition between the forces of good and those of evil. The choice perceived was one of nuances, albeit strong in some views, rather than candidates clearly good or bad. There was plenty of criticism directed at both candidates: not only from Israeli perspectives but when Israelis made an effort to put themselves in the place of Americans.
A Bush second term may differ from a Bush first term. There may be more pressure on Israel to reach an accommodation with the Palestinians. But that is likely to depend in large measure on what happens within Palestine. Just now I hear on the news that Arafat is in a coma, very serious, with concern about his life. What comes after will affect both what the American administration does, and how the Israeli government will respond.
God has had a busy few days. First was the Red Sox's victory in the World Series. Then easing Arafat from Palestine to France. Then producing a clear victory in the American election without a concern for hanging chads or provisional votes. I hope that the Almighty keeps at it. There are a few more things that we need, and are not able to do for ourselves.
When I was a kid way back in 1968, the only Jews I knew who supported Nixon were my Israeli hebrew school teachers. To the incredulous disbelief of my fellow classmates and myself they said that when the chips were down, they believed that Nixon would come through for Israel. As it turned out they were right.
Posted by: Larry, San Francisco on November 5, 2004 12:18 AMI think it is unlikely the Bush administration will put pressure on Israel. With or without Arafat the Palestinians have nothing to offer Israel. The Palestinians who might accept peace with Israel cannot prevent those who will not accept peace from continuing their attacks on Israel. So the Palestinians cannot even really offer a pretense of "land for peace," since it would take a Palestinian civil war to destroy Hamas and Hezballah before Israel would reap any benefit from such a bargain. At this point if such a civil war took place the terrorist would probably defeat the Palestinian doves.
I think Sharon has it about right considering the situation Israel faces. Withdraw from Gaza and part of the West Bank and let the Palestinians fight each other for a while.
Bush seems to comprehend these realities and is not likely to pressure Israel to ignore them.
Recent history has shown that attempts to push a resolution of the issues leads to increased violance. It appears to me that both sides would benefit from giving the peace process a rest.
Posted by: Merv Benson on November 5, 2004 07:01 PMI'm perplexed by the notion, commonly reported, that American Jews are fearful of the religious right. I can understand political differences and I can understand historical references, but there is a failure to update ones perceptions in light of contemporary reality. Speaking as an evangelical Christian with roots in the midwest and now lives in the San Francisco Bay Area, I can't imagine what threatens American Jews compared to the vitriol directed towards me and mine--some by those who are Jewish. I can only guess that they believe the tripe produced by our media.
Posted by: Menlo Bob on November 6, 2004 09:20 AMMenlo Bob,
History.
Religious Christians DID once threaten Jews and it takes a while to readjust to new realities. There still are quite a few religious antisemites (especially among older people) and we still sometimes think they represent a major trend.
And then there's Pat Buchanan. Now he's a joke, but I know people who were terrified by him.
Pat Buchanan will always find work because he serves the purpose of discrediting both conservatives and Christians. MSNBCs hiring practices seem bizarrely configured to frighten and repell viewers.
Posted by: Menlo Bob on November 10, 2004 10:38 PM