Letter from Jerusalem, Oct. 23

We're alone again.

Israelis are alone in wanting George Bush by a large margin.

A report in Ha'aretz of October 15th told about national surveys done by leading newspapers in Canada, France, Great Britain, Japan, Spain, Russia, Mexico, Australia, and South Korea, as well as Israel. Substantial majorities in all countries but Israel-- in some cases up to 80 percent-- answered in the negative about the Iraq war, their general attitude toward the United States, and Bush's candidacy for re-election. Seventy-six percent of Israelis said that they thought the US contributed to peace in the world; 50 percent supported Bush and only 24 percent Kerry.

With a monopoly of being a great power and historically the focus of aspirations of people around the world, the United States is also an obvious focus of disappointment. It is hard, perhaps impossible, for an idealized country to match aspirations. American streets of the 19th century were usually covered in horse shit, like those of Europe, but lots of immigrants actually expected to find them paved with gold.

For many Israelis, recent American behavior, especially in vetoing routine one-sided Security Council denunciations of Israel, makes the United States our best friend, and maybe our only friend. The people of other democracies focus on American unilateralism, and Bush's tendency to repeat simple descriptions of his beliefs and purposes. For some, perhaps, opposition to Bush reflects their annoyance at being left out of the loop. There is also the love of studied ambivalence and nuance by western Intellectuals, with Bush showing not much of either.

Numerous Israelis see American involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq as helping us. In Iraq, in particular, the US neutralized a large army and potentially dangerous supply of weaponry that had been used against Israel on several occasions from 1948 onward. In Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as increased involvement of the United States with the Syrians, Iranians, and others, the result may drive home in America the problems we have in dealing with the fanaticism that is so widespread in this region.

While numerous American Jews defend their support of Kerry by reference to Bush's closeness to fundamentalist Protestants, this is not a problem that worries many Israelis. Israelis are far from America's cultural problems; we look with some fondness at Christians who come here with their pastors, proclaim their support and sing our patriotic songs in what may be memorized Hebrew. For a country with few friends, it is easy to welcome those who enthusiasm is palpable.

We are not unanimous. Note the 24 percent supporting Kerry. Some of my friends are convinced that Bush is led by slogans rather than reasoning, and that Kerry must be better. The notion that Americans can bring democracy to Muslim countries is viewed with something between incredulity and cynicism. Some Israelis, like some Americans, focus on the blunders in the war, but others realize from their own experience that wars are filled with pitfalls. Some see the United States staying the course and making Iraq a better or at least a stable place. Others fear a American reaction against American overextension, or see an Iraq that is a breeding ground for ever more extreme Islamic fanaticism, and thus more dangerous than a pre-war Iraq for the region and Israel.

The election of John Kerry could be the first step in an American reaction against the Iraq war, with implications for Israel. Even Ha'aretz, the most left-wing of Israel's major papers, and usually critical of the Israeli government , published an article last week that reported the following:

The Democratic party has quite a few outspoken critics of Israel in its ranks who could bring their influence to bear. As an Israeli official said this week: If Kerry wins, his administration "will butcher us on the humanitarian issue" - meaning that Israel's freedom of action in the territories will be severely curbed (which, of course, will make plenty of Jews happy, in Israel and America). He also mentioned Kerry's accentuation of "partners" in the international community - a partnership that will be costly for Israel. "These are things that should scare the Jews." . . .
Kerry does indeed have a history of support for Israel, but he has never been much of an activist in this regard. Quite a few Israelis have met Kerry in recent years, and some of them - including several who are still in office today - had an uncomfortable feeling about him. "It wasn't anything he said," one of them tried to explain. "It was something he projected." Somehow, Kerry's outstretched hand never felt very warm. . . .
The remarks a few days ago by Jewish Democratic senator and former candidate for vice president, Joe Lieberman, seem to point in the same direction. While Lieberman appealed to the Jews of Florida to vote for Kerry - for a whole host of reasons, some related to American internal politics - he also said that the Democratic candidate needed to be "clearer" on his support of Israel.

Next Tuesday will in all probability provide more data to confuse political scientists still trying to find a convincting explanation for upper-income, well-educated Jews who vote so heavily Democratic. They will surely do it again, but will it be more or less than in previous elections going back to 1932? This is the first time I recall that Israeli feelings were so strong for one presidential candidate or another. It is likely to be the first time that a substantial chasm will be apparent between American and Israeli Jewish sentiments. In this respect, it will continue a process that began with the war in Lebanon from 1982 onward. Israel and the American Jewish community have grown independent of one another. Now this is apparent not only in their feelings about what should happen in the Middle East, but about what should happen in the United States.

Posted by Ira Sharkansky at October 24, 2004 05:13 PM