December 19, 2003
Sharon's Unilateral Disengagement Plan

Commentary from Hebrew University political science professor Ira Sharkansky

Last night was the big speech. For a week we had little more than preliminary commentary, and now we're into the post-speech discussion. The pre- and post- are the same. There was enough in the speech to reward or provoke all perspectives. It was not necessary to know all the words in order to say what you think about it.

The speech was Ariel Sharon's long awaited policy statement. He put the Palestinians on notice that if they did not negotiate in a reasonable fashion they would lose. He talked about dismantling some Jewish settlements that Israel could not keep in any conception of the future, and taking unilateral steps to redefine Israel's lines of defense. He promised not to do anything without taking account of the posture of Israel's great friend, the US government.

The settlers and their supporters are nearly up in arms at the thought of dismantling settlements. Those obsessed with finding a formula that will entice the Palestinians to be reasonable are shreaking that Sharon is flubbing yet another opportunity. The US government adheres to its priorities, and has come out against unilateral actions.

In my modest view, the speech portends very little that is new. Israel is already redrawing the lines of its defense. The security fence/wall/barriers reaches into Palestinian areas in order to protect major Jewish settlements, and for practical purposes will be Israel's new border. It won't be recognized internationally, but Israel has learned to live without internationally recognized borders. I doubt that Sharon will remove settlements really occupied by numerous families. The unoccupied trailer, the lone watch tower, or the tiny and isolated religious hippie group may be something else. What this is really all about is the line of the fence abuilding.

It reminds me of the story of the goat. A sizable family suffering from life in a tiny dwelling asks the rabbi what to do. The rabbi says that they must bring the animals into the house. The family suffers even more, and goes back to the rabbi. He tells them to remove the animals from the house. They do this, and find that the rabbi is a blessed genius. Without the animals the house is better than tolerable.

The goat in this instance is the threat of new unilateral action or the withdrawal of settlements. The status quo ante is the construction of the fence. Once the threat of new actions is seen to be meaningless, the status
quo ante looks pretty good.

It might also help to consider Jonathan Swift's A Modest Proposal (A MODEST PROPOSAL FOR PREVENTING THE CHILDREN OF POOR PEOPLE IN IRELAND FROM BEING A BURDEN TO THEIR PARENTS OR COUNTRY, AND FOR MAKING THEM BENEFICIAL TO THE PUBLIC, 1729).

Please don't take Swift seriously, and I am not proposing that Palestinians survive by selling their children. But stewing in their own juice is more apt. Just yesterday the BBC broadcast a plaintive demand of a Palestinian from Gaza insisting on his right to return to a home in Jaffa that his family left two generations ago in 1948. Where this is a crucial national demand reinforced by respected international media there is little hope for serious responses. We don't know the details of the near future, but from all the signs the Palestinians will be worse off as a result of their intifada.

Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at December 19, 2003 11:28 AM
Comments

"The security fence/wall/barriers reaches into Palestinian areas in order to protect major Jewish settlements, and for practical purposes will be Israel's new border."

So...after this latest diplomatic subterfuge winds down, a few outposts and watchtowers and isolated hippies are painfully conceded, and the fence is constructed, what kind of support will there be for the annexation of the territories outlying the fence?

Posted by: markus rose on December 19, 2003 04:17 PM

Huh, markus? by outlying the fence, i suppose you mean those to the east? Israel is not going to annex those, it is possible after arafat's death and a palestinian civil war, that a palestinian state could be in those areas. the areas within the fence are obviously bargaining chips held by Israel, or permanently annexed. then change is that after waiting for almost 40 years for the arabs to make a deal and take back the west bank, israel just gave up waiting and will do it on its own - yeah, i know, you will say that israel is nazi germany for doing it, but what do you expect israel to do.

Posted by: jannol on December 19, 2003 09:33 PM

The Palestinians believe time is on their side. They have been wrong about that for 55 years. Sharon's move is designed to consolidate the area west of the security fence into Israel despite claiming it isn't permanent.

I predict the next step will be a population trade that will be imposed on the Palestinians in about 2 years or sooner if the violence escalates. Israeli settlements east of the fence will be evacuated. Israel will force out many of the Palestinian west of the security fence and give them the evacuated settlements.

Posted by: Reid on December 20, 2003 06:52 AM

No matter what Sharon does I always keep in mind that he is a tactical genius. Even though we might not have a clue what the heck he's doing sometimes, remeber that he is thinking a few steps ahead.

Posted by: Dead Ed on December 22, 2003 05:50 AM

Reading an article this weekend in the sunday NYTimes, it appears the real issue is whether or not the security fence will encompass the Jordan Valley. If fence takes in the Jordan Valley, 85% of West Bank will be within the Palestinian area, if Jordan Valley remain outside fence, Palestinian land within will be 50%. 50% vs. 85% seems to be the choice Palestinians will get. I bet Palestinians will reject both, and if they do, I bet Bush will veto any resulting Israeli annexation moves.

Reading this week's Jerusalem Dispatch in the New Republic by Jossi Klein Halevi, it sounds like Sharon has planned to dismantle a settlement of around 40 people called Migron, although thousands of supporters are expected to gather to resist.

Posted by: markus rose on December 22, 2003 11:22 AM

REID,

That idea is fing brilliant! It won't go over well but its a great idea. Israel needs to gift over about 3-400,000 Israeli Arabs or Palestinians in exchange for the settlers east of the fence, and this provides a great impetus to keep the settlements outside the wall not only to show the Arabs that the fence is not a psychological surrender. At each point Sharon only needs to waive a carrot and a stick and let the destructive Palestinians keep fing themselves. The Americans will resist of course either sincerely or half sincerely and Sharon will slowly keep moving down the path.

If Israel ends up with a transfer of several hundred thousand, a secure fence and most settlements in 3 or 4 years they'll have a secure Israel for many many many years to come. Then they can negotiate work permits for security for Hebron or other holy places, Joseph's Tomb, Shechem, etc... The Palis will self implode and fight a brutal civil war and Israel will of course be blamed, but that's nothing new anyway.

Mike

Posted by: Mike on December 23, 2003 07:20 AM

Hi,
I'm a journalist with english aljazeera.net , currently writing a piece on the Herzliya Conference and Sharon's "Disengagment Plan". I am trying to get in touch with Ira Sharansky for some analysis/perspective. Does he have an email or phone number?
thanks. I can be reached at the email lme1@duke.edu.

Posted by: Laila on December 25, 2003 02:44 AM

hi, i am a graduate student in a middle east studies program looking for internship opportunities with international and local ngos in gaza city or the gaza strip. i was wondering if anyone here can provide any information regarding this. also, i was wondering what effect the disengagement plan will have on foreigners travelling to the gaza strip. if anyone has any information regarding either of these issues please e-mail me at mich_n77@hotmail.com, or sajma_jaca77@yahoo.com.

Posted by: Shaima on April 23, 2004 02:48 PM

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Posted by: lolita on January 19, 2005 08:36 PM
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