Israel drew a line in the sand a few weeks ago when it announced its decision to remove Arafat at a time and in a manner of its choosing. The unstated implication was that Arafat and his team had to act decisively to end the terrorism and disarm the terrorists. Until today's bombing, there has not been a large-scale terror attack in the three weeks since the removal decision was announced. As I wrote earlier, Israel has a very short window of time after a terror event to act forcefully against Arafat. If the move on the Muqata doesn't happen tonight, it probably never will happen. And if Arafat survives the night, both he and the rest of the Palestinians will have to conclude that Israel lacks the will and/or international support to adequately defend itself. This would reinforce the Palestinian assumption that terrorism succeeds at weakening Israel and will ultimately force major concessions. If Arafat survives the night, expect an escalation in terror attacks.
Israel has indicated that it would not act against Arafat without consulting Washington. Tellingly, in Bush's statement today condemning the bombing
The president said nothing about how Israel should retaliate. In the past, Bush has often urged Israel to consider the implications its actions will have on peace efforts.
Nothing will happen. Ariel Sharon is too interested in being on a first name basis with George Wahabi Bush. Israel is finished. Why has that fence not been finished already? The answer is because people high up in the Israeli government are deliberately slowing down the work because they do not want it to be completed. Before this year is over (2003) there unfortunately will be at least 100 more Jews blown up. There was a time when the term "Never again" used to mean something, but now it means "Please God not tomorrow" as James Lileks has rightly said.
Posted by: Joel on October 4, 2003 11:53 AMLook the entire world and the US include almost as well, passed an EMERGENCY Resolution to support YASSER ARAFAT and condemn Israel after everyone knows that Arafat pulled the strings for 2 suicide bombings, ousted Abu Mazen after everyone knows he resisted every move he made, and then more evidence came to the fore about the Hundreds of Millions "of which we only know" he stole.
If you don't think Arafat believes that he can bend and fuck with the US and Israel now without worry of being expelled or killed, THINK AGAIN.
Mike
Posted by: Mike on October 4, 2003 01:03 PMShark says: "If Arafat survives the night, expect an escalation in terror attacks."
If Arafat doesn't survive the night there will also be a major escalation of attacks.
Expect a major military escalation by Israel after Yom Kippur. Most likely will be an invasion and reoccupation of Gaza. The Mukata will probably be stormed and Arafat captured dead or alive but he won't be exiled. Exile doesn't diminish his power and increases his ability to cause Israel diplomatic problems. The Mukata now has about 200 wanted terrorists living under Arafats protections. That will probably end after todays travesty.
Wow, Stefan! From your mouth to God's ear, I hope!
I am so weary of that murderer Arafat...
If only the good guys had killed him 30 years ago after the massacre of the Israeli wrestling team at the Munich Olympics!
How the IDF has held back this long we'll never know.
I don't think President Bush will try and stay Sharon's hand either, no matter what Colin Powell babbles about.
Today's attack--with the road map in shambles, no move by the PA to end terrorism and no real "Palestian" leadership to speak of except Yasser-- may have been one terror bomb too many, if you'll forgive me (because, of course, they all were too many).
It's clear that Arafat ordered this one, just like he did all the others and it's not going to stop until he's "removed."
They may not stop immediately after that, but it will be infinitely more difficult.
Along with OBL and over even Saddam, Yasser is one of the kingpins of global terror and he taught Osama everything he knows.
There's an odd quiet from the Israeli cabinet. This could indicate good or a bad thing.
Here's hoping for a total alteration of the facts on the ground by Israel--something unexpected and dramatic--that will force everyone to show their hands. It's long overdue.
Posted by: Sage on October 4, 2003 04:25 PMIs there something like the impeachment process
in the Israeli constitution?
The current government has proven time and again
its negligence in its duty to defend the population.
Update on Radio.
This is exactly how the report was ordered. NOTICE THE ORDER AS USUAL...... indicating, a "cycle of violence"
Israel fired rockets in Gaza in an 'apparent' retaliation to the bombing in Haifa in which 19 'bystanders' were killed and 50 injured. The PLO "condemned" the attack (in Haifa) and said they hoped Israel would not do "anything to jeopardize the """Peace Process.""""
Then Saeb Ereket was given a full 10 seconds to say how he condemned the Haifa attack and that thsi is not the "policy" of his government (REALLY?? holiday named after suicide bombers including the first female they used?) and he did not want Israel to do anything to hurt the forming of the new PLO government and Cabinet so that they could move forward with the "Peace Process"
IN SUMMATION -
19 innocent people are murdered in mixed neighborhood and cafe in Haifa including babies and kids and over 50 injured. THERE IS NO DIRECT REPORTING of the Bombing! N-O-N-E ONLY AS MENTIONED as an AFTERTHOUGH as a "SUPPOSED" JUSTIFICATION OF ISRAEL'S "RETALIATION" AND THEN 10 SECONDS FOR SAEB EREKET A PLO THUG, TO SPEAK ABOUT HIS GOVERNMENT (now that Arafat has booted Mazen)and warning Israel not to do anything in return!!
Is there something like the impeachment process in the Israeli constitution?
In a parliamentary system, like Israel has, it's relatively easy to oust the sitting government. All you need is a simple majority in the parliament to vote no-confidence. There doesn't even have to be reason other than the political will to remove the government.
I've seen nothing to suggest that the Knesset will vote no-confidence in Sharon any time soon.
Posted by: Stefan Sharkansky on October 4, 2003 08:57 PMThe Right Wing Parties are most likely not going to vote against him and risk a more left leaning government. There is no indication that Shinnui is going to leave either. He has to juggle between their opposing agendas of secular and religious though in domestic politics.
Posted by: Mike on October 5, 2003 10:51 AMI love the fact that jews think that Arafat is the bad person and he is a terrorist, we dont love the fucking guy and we cant wait until he dies soon.Then imagine Rantisi is elected, then ya will shut the fuck up.
Posted by: david on October 10, 2003 09:10 AM