Ze'ev Schiff, always worth reading, says that the Sharon government's threat to remove Arafat was a dead end maneuver.

No predictions from me, but given the international outcry on Arafat's behalf, I think it would be difficult for Israel to act against Arafat in the absence of a new provocation. You'd think that the last pair of suicide bombings would have been sufficient provocation, not to mention all the other terrorist attacks since the "Oslo peace", or for that matter, all the terror attacks before Oslo. But, given that the Jews are the Chosen People -- chosen, apparently, to stand down from defending themselves when attacked -- the window of world sympathy after an attack is measured in minutes. So if Israel were to act against Arafat, the time to do it would be immediately after the next serious terror attack.

Put yourself in the shoes of Yassir Arafat and his closest advisors. You are deranged and bloodthirsty, but not altogether stupid and you have a talent for self-preservation if nothing else. You would probably conclude along with your insurance underwriter that the single biggest threat to your own longevity is another terrorist attack. You might bet that American pressure, threats to target all Israelis (now how is that different from the status quo?), and using cute little girls as human shields will prevent the Israelis from killing you. Then again, that might not. In a nut shell, you have a gun to your head. You get to save face by having a block party, but you are under house arrest and you have a gun to your head. Wouldn't you try with everything you have to make sure that there aren't any more terrorist attacks for a while?

That's no guarantee that some Al Aqsa Martyrs dude won't try to be a "hero", but I'd be surprised if Arafat weren't trying to clamp down on his people.

And if I were Sharon, the next time there was a terror attack, I wouldn't announce my intentions, I'd just go and take Arafat out while the TV networks are still broadcasting scenes from the funerals of his victims.