Today's Washington Post reports that Pre-war intelligence viewed Saddam attack as unlikely
"Saddam, if sufficiently desperate, might decide that only an organization such as al Qaeda, . . . already engaged in a life-or-death struggle against the United States, could perpetrate the type of terrorist attack that he would hope to conduct," one key judgment of the estimate said.You know this is already being used to "prove" that Bush lied to get us into a pointless war -- for example by this guy, who concludes that "White House Knew Saddam More Dangerous if Attacked" [emphasis mine]. The same guy also claims that "Connection Between Iraq and Al Qaeda Still Not There" and that "Experts Were Told Iraq had No WMDs Months Before War"It went on to say that Hussein might decide to take the "extreme step" of assisting al Qaeda in a terrorist attack against the United States if it "would be his last chance to exact vengeance by taking a large number of victims with him."
Let's stop, and review all of this for a minute. Today's report was not about intelligence data, but about a predictive assessment. And it was a wrong assessment, because Saddam Hussein did not fulfill the prediction, in spite of the fact that he has been in a life-and-death struggle. Furthermore, this prediction was inherently based on the intelligence agencies' own assumptions that (1) Saddam had ties with terrorists, and (2) he possessed WMD -- which contradicts all those other accusations that Bush lied.
All this proves is:
(a) Intelligence is a highly imprecise business, especially the part where they tie facts together to predict the future. Our intelligence agencies, after all, did not predict, for example (i) the impending collapse of the Soviet Union, (ii) Saddam's invasion of Kuwait, and (iii) the September 11 attacks
(b) Our intelligence agencies need to do a better job
(c) It's a good thing the ultimate decisions are being made by elected and accountable civilian leaders and not by career bureaucrats in the intelligence agencies
(d) those who are viscerally opposed to George W Bush are so desperate to try to discredit the man that they will throw up any internally inconsistent nonsense and won't even notice that they're contradicting themselves.
Having smelled a bit of blood in the water with the Niger business, the anti-Bush people are now re-processing the spent-fuel-rods of old losing, arguments to see if they can get something out of the re-hashing. The issue of Saddam counter-attacking if attacked (imagine!) was already addressed as part of the spectrum of losing arguments that failed to keep the dictator in power. It's no more valid now, especially, as you point out, we know it didn't work out that way.
Posted by: Solomon on July 22, 2003 08:49 AM(d) those who are viscerally opposed to George W Bush are so desperate to try to discredit the man that they will throw up any internally inconsistent nonsense...
Hmmm, I read Paul Krugman in the 'new' NYT today as well. He sure is one of a kind...
Oh -- you were talking about someone else?
If those of us admittedly viscerally opposed to Bush and desperate to discredit him were only putting forward "internally inconsistent nonsense and...contradicting [ourselves]," then why is it that THIS particular nonsense (the knowing use of incendiary but false pre-war intelligence for propoganda purposes) is in the news day after day, and may in fact be the straw that breaks Tony Blair's back, as opposed to the other "nonsense" that is relegated to Kucinich or Dean campaign press releases?
Unlike Hitler in the 30's, Saadam post-1991 was very effectively contained in developing WMD's and expanding his armed forces. This was the correct assessment that most of the facts pointed to before the war, and nothing we have learned since then has contradicted it. The overthrow of his government was necessary as a humanitarian mission (like Liberia!) to liberate Iraqis from a sadistic totalitarian regime and crippling but necessary international sanctions. It was also useful, perhaps even necessary, as a means to reorder the strategic balance and political dynamics of the region away from those tolerating or encouraging anti-Americanism and toward those encouraging democracy. It seems that the important question to ask is: is it justifiable for a President to lead us to war on a false pretext, simply because the legitimate pretext is too controversial, too difficult to explain, or, in some (mostly conservative) quarters, simply insufficient grounds for invasion?
Posted by: Markus Rose on July 23, 2003 09:39 AMMr. Rose:
>If those of us admittedly viscerally opposed to Bush and desperate to discredit him...
I suspect that you are being sarcastic. However (says this two-time Clinton voter), the shoe seems to fit many folks on the illiberal left. As to why a media filled with people of this description bring up mostly-empty charges against Bush time and again...the question answers itself.
Did Bush's statement on African uranium really sway your views on the war? Were they altered again upon the news that it was a lie--well, not a lie, but false--well, not false, but supported by forged documents. And forgeries aside, those 16 words are still, this week, backed by Blair.
This may be what the Democratic leadership is selling, but this Democrat isn't buying.
Posted by: AMac on July 23, 2003 04:26 PMMr. or Ms. AMac --
No, I was being serious and honest -- I really do despise Bush, and fear the prospect of two to ten more years of Republican control of all branches of federal government. And, like a lot of Republicans circa 1996-1999, I am not sure how to convince a majority of my fellow citizens to agree with me, and I really am concerned that my side will continue to lose. (I'm a liberal dem on most issues although I supported the war - Kerry's stance on this and most other issues suits me well, though I admit his personality is insufferable.)
As my initial post here indicated, my support for the war did not rest on Saadam's alleged clear and present threat to America. But the statement on African uranium was the one of two things in the speech (the other was the unaccounted for chemical stockpiles -- that figure was also found to be inflated if I am not mistaken) that led me to believe that maybe I was underestimating that threat, that maybe Saadam was not so well contained as I had thought.
What really concerns me about this incident is the possible use of deception in order to build support for war. Certainly this is nothing new, goes back at least to the Spanish American War in our country, but it is dangerous and reprehensible no matter who does it. Under all circumstances, it should be hard for a President to take us to war, at least as hard as it is to raise taxes on the middle class. I have no idea whether or not the Democrats should be stressing this issue politically, but at this point I find any dissent at all from Bush welcome evidence that in fact this country still does have a two party system and a free press.
Posted by: Markus Rose on July 24, 2003 07:25 AMMr. Rose,
Thanks for your thoughtful and civil response.
>What really concerns me about this incident is the possible use of deception in order to build support for war.
I agree with your concerns.
"Deception" has a couple of contexts. The "Bush Lied" meme is that Bush and his top advisors knew that certain information was incorrect, but presented it as true. I find it revealing the many of those who despise Bush will take any evidence of any mistake, and start the discussion with accusations of deliberate lying. This is either naive or disingenuous. No thoughtful person supposes that intelligence on closed societies can approach ideal standards of accuracy, or can paint a full and complete picture.
"Deception" can also refer to self-deception. The policy implications of, say, groupthink, are severe, but it's hardly illuminating to conflate it with lying.
Phil Carter has posted extensively on this issue as it applies to the war in Iraq and its aftermath.
"Deception" in wartime is also relevant here (no links come to mind). Anything a democratic government tells its citizens, it also, obviously, tells its enemies. Some of the criticism Bush got on his "Axis of Evil" quip was that it served to get dictators thinking about their common interests versus the U.S.
Steven den Beste recently posted his outsider's view of the Bush team's strategic plan. I suspect and hope that it is largely accurate; you may disagree.
We can agree that Bush saying such things would have would have created a firestorm of controversy. Explictly informing our enemies of our detailed strategy would also have made it much easier for them to thwart it.
I do think that Bush has practiced this sort of deception. I don't think the general outline of the Reformist strategy eluded many people who care about such things. And I don't see much of an alternative; a Dean or Buchanan or Kerry plan that is very different in substance might also require leaving certain things unsaid.
"Deception" in a democracy is a very troubling thing, and related to erosion of civil liberties. Like the Cold War, the "War on Terrorism" is seemingly without end, so acceptance of wartime deception is doubly difficult.
It's clear to me that "Bush Lied!" is a very poor explanation of what we are seeing. And I don't see that Bush's foreign policy has gone off the deep end regarding deception.
The latter is a tough call, people of good will can disagree.
Posted by: AMac on July 24, 2003 10:44 AM