April 27, 2003
Is Abu Mazen the Messiah?
Commentary from my father, Hebrew University political scientist Ira Sharkansky
Is Abu Mazan the messiah? Probably not. His appointment as prime minister of Palestine raises more questions than it answers. Will Arafat give him a free hand to deal with terror and negotiate with Israel? Is Abu Mazan willing or able to pressure the various groups to stop the violence? How much of a gesture will Israel present to help him with these tasks?
Even in the best of circumstances, his task is not enviable. The distrust between Israelis and Palestinians is profound. Many of us don't believe a word they say, and it's doubtful that many of them believe us. Not the best of circumstances to reach agreement, even piece by piece.
So how can we proceed? If all goes well, slowly. I doubt that the IDF will pull out of more than one or two Palestinian locales at a time, in order to test the willingness and capacity of the Palestinians to control the violence.
None of this might work. Many Palestinians continue to fantasize that they are on the right track with their violence. So we be due for a longer period of keeping the IDF and other security forces in Palestinian cities, knocking off their leaders and key technicians one or a few at a time, doing our best to keep them from doing us harm, until they come to their senses. It may take a while.
Mattan's group of cadets spent last week posted to the police in order to reinforce their high state of alert for the Passover holiday. He complained in mid week that his was a boring task of guarding a staircase in Kfar Saba. Then Thursday morning he called at 7:30. I wondered what was the problem, because his calls are usually in the afternoon or evening. He said that he was all right, and not to worry, but that 20 or so police cars had just gone careening out of the station to a security incident. There was nothing on the news for a minute or two, until the reports came in about a suicide bomber at the local railroad station.
It turned out that the bomber was affiliated with an organization connected both with Yassir Arafat and Abu Mazan. From all appearances, we'll have to wait for a better messiah.
Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at April 27, 2003 07:22 AM
What is the fuss about Abu Mazen? The issue is clear.
Israel has a choice. Either Sharon will say no, and the Israelis will support him, or he will agree and that will be it.
Whether there is a roadmap implementation or not is up to Israel.
Whether the world knows exactly who Mazen is, is up to Israel.
However, Israel is middle-aged these days.
It is not the brave strong nation it was even 10 years ago.
It has an old man who is nervous and corrupt as its leader and is prepared to sell the nation for $1 billion of grants and $9 billion of loan guarantees.
It is a nation that is strangled by socialism in the form of institutions such as the histadrut.
The Israeli leadership looks more like that of the Soviet Union: elections usually mean musical chairs and it is every bit as corrupt.
To these friendly eyes observing from thousands of miles away, not colored by the diaspora illusion, Israel looks feeble and afraid, willing to do anything the United States directs. America's whore.
Imagine how it looks to enemies.
Well it seems to me the world is now expecting Israel to actually stick to it's word and make an effort for peace now that Israels greatest excuse Yasser Arafat is no longer here.
It is not something which Isreal can choose...but rather it's what the world is expecting.
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