A recent interview in Der Spiegel with Ahmad Berwari, the German representative of Iraqi Kurdish opposition group PUK.
Holger Kulick conducted the interview. I translate from the German
Der Spiegel: A military attack on Iraq is imminent. Does this make the Iraqi exiles feel hopeful or anxious?
Berwari: You often hear Iraqi exiles say that they are against an American invasion, because the Americans are an outside force. But secretly most of them are in favor. The Kurds believe that Iraq's problems can be solved by removing Saddam Hussein from power. Therefore we are in favor of ousting Saddam militarily, although we won't take part in it.
Der Spiegel: That's perplexing. Why not?
Berwari: The Americans so far haven't offered us any role. Either they think we lack sufficient forces, or the Turks don't want us in. But we have to protect our own population from a possible retaliation by the Iraqi army -- for which, by the way, we're insufficiently equipped. Because Saddam Hussein's army doesn't need missiles in order to attack us with chemical weapons, their artillery alone would suffice.
Der Spiegel: But would you be protected from that?
Berwari: Unfortunately we don't have the defensive measures, like Israel or Kuwait have, although the Kurds have already been the victims of such an attack. They've only told us that we should prepare for the phase after Saddam Hussein's ouster. We've been left to handle the war on our own.
Der Spiegel: So there's no Kurdish-American military alliance?
Berwari: We view the Americans and British as liberators. The no-fly zone they're guarding in Northern Iraq has allowed the Iraqi Kurds to administer our own region since 1991. It comprises some 60% of the Iraqi Kurdish region with about 45,000 sq.km. and about 3.5 million inhabitants.
Der Spiegel: As a semi-official Kurdistan?
Berwari: Despite the economic difficulties and blockades, the people there at least enjoy a certain freedom, and we're proud of that. They even have Internet cafes, cell phones and satellite receivers. The people in the rest of Iraq are envious of these freedoms and the standard of living outside of the authority of the Iraqi central government. We also have semi-diplomatic relations with European states, with the US, Arab states, Iran and Turkey. For supplies we get 13% of the Iraqi oil revenues in the framework of the UN Oil-for-Food program. That has helped make us practically independent.
Der Spiegel: Can the Americans and British count on the Kurds for rear cover?
Berwari: Not necessarily. The Iraqi Kurds would be opposed to a war whose aim is the destruction of Iraq's infrastructure. We would only accept a war that would overthrow Saddam and spare the people. That's why the Kurds are increasingly worried about Turkey.
Der Spiegel: Why is Turkey supporting the US? [the interview appeared a few days before the Turkish parliamentary vote that withheld permission from the US to use Turkish bases]
Berwari: It is increasingly apparent that they are using this conflict for their own purposes -- to bear down on the Iraqi Kurds. Until a week ago there were negotiations between Turkey and the US over Turkey's conditions for opening up a northern front against Iraq. Turkey was able to bring enough pressure to bear that they extracted a number of concessions. Now they'll be able to send in a few thousand of their own commandos into northern Iraq in order to control the Kurdish region and hold any attempts at autonomy in check. That threatens to put an end to the freedom that we worked so hard to create for ourselves.
Der Spiegel: What are the northern Iraqi Kurds trying to achieve? Their own state?
Berwari: The ordinary Kurd on the street would accept that immediately. But the Kurdish politicians are mature enough to realize that there is no chance of establishing an independent Kurdish state. The Kurds' best friends would quickly become our enemies. So it remains a dream. In reality, the Iraqi Kurds are striving for a democratic federal state -- within a united Iraq.
Der Spiegel: Would Kurdistan have a future as a federal state?
Berwari: As a federal state, or federal region in which we Kurds also see ourselves as Iraqi citizens. In any case this federal state would be constructed along the German or Swiss model. We consider this combination of democracy and federalism as the best solution for the Kurdish question and for the future of Iraq as a whole.
Der Spiegel: France, Germany and Russia are trying feverishly to avoid a war and to use diplomatic means to contain Saddam. Do you see this as an alternative?
Berwari: Everybody is against war. But we Iraqis have been living with a kind of war for 34 years. If Iraq now fulfills Resolution 1441, the main problem for the Iraqi people will not be solved. Saddam Hussein's regime would still be in power and continue its oppression.
Der Spiegel: The opponents of war argue that the UN must not strive for regime change.
Berwari: That is a uniquely German view from a government whose shifting positions we don't understand. Germany was a hawk in the Yugoslavia war, now it is a dove. That doesn't make sense to us. Was that because of the [German] elections? Or is Germany now in an economic position that it can't afford the billions for a war, as it did during the Gulf War over Kuwait? Maybe the German government believes that it's economically irrelevant whether Iraq is ruled by Saddam Huseein or not.
Der Spiegel: The German and the French characterize a military attack as too risky for the civilian population. Is that not a valid concern?
Berwari: Everybody claims that they have the interests of the Iraqi people at heart, without even asking them. It's certainly hard to do that in Iraq. But there are four million Iraqis living abroad who also have an opinion. As a rule they would say: Violence is a poor solution, but to not do something drastic at this point is no solution at all.
Der Spiegel: The conflict could destabilize the entire region.
Berwari: We are convinced that this war would last at most a week, until the Iraqi army would realize that Saddam Hussein's overthrow was inevitable. Then the majority of the soldiers would stop supporting Saddam because they have also suffered under his dictatorship. We are already in contact with a number of units from the army. They would give up at the first shot. In 1991 we Kurds captured 120,000 Iraqi soldiers -- who mostly gave up without a fight. We had no idea how we were going to feed them.
Der Spiegel: Wouldn't a regime change require a charismatic figure like Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan?
Berwari: That is a fallacy. Iraq is not Afghanistan, we have no little warlords or tribes that are pursuing their own power games and economic interests. Iraq is a country with a long continuous cultural history, where the first code of law was inscribed on tablets. If you wouldn't have confidence that such a country would know how to use such an opportunity for a new beginning, I would find it embarrassing.
Der Spiegel: Is this unity stable? There are reports of Islamist attacks against Kurdish politicians in Iraq.
Berwari: This comes from the Ansar al-Islam terrorist organization. They control eight villages to the east of Suleimaniya in northern Iraq on the Iranian border, and have 700-900 fighters. About 120 aren't even Iraqi, but came from the Afghan war. But we don't consider them a long-term threat, but believe that they're taking advantage of the security situation.
Der Spiegel: Aren't you afraid that scattered members of Saddam Hussein's Baath party will later operate as terrorists?
Berwari: No. After Hussein's ouster that would be barely imaginable. This dictatorship is comprised of an all-powerful head, which, if it loses its power, the whole system ceases to function. Apart from that, the people have too many day to day problems, like getting drinking water. They don't have time for such thoughts whether they want to be politcally active as pan-Arab, anti-American or radical Islamist. They want their peace and quiet and simply to live.
Der Spiegel: How much would people still worry about the long arm of Saddam Hussein's seven secret police agencies after a war?
Berwari: Those would also fall apart after Saddam Hussein's overthrow. They are controlled only by his regime. If that no longer exists, it would be similar to what happened in East Germany in 1989. Suddenly the whole ruling structure goes away.
Der Spiegel: You are very optimistic.
Berwari: No, I am a realist. Because I am an Iraqi and I know my own people. And they have other problems beside pursuing wild ideals. In this situation an American temporary military governor isn't even a problem for most people. Because they would ask themselves who is worse for their everyday life: Saddam Hussein or Tommy Franks? The answer should be obvious.
Thanks, very enlightening.
Posted by: pbird on March 4, 2003 06:02 AM"Everybody claims that they have the interests of the Iraqi people at heart, without even asking them."
That about says it all.
Posted by: ty on March 4, 2003 06:55 AMDoes anybody else notice how this interviewer keeps trying to project Franco-German objections to the war on the Kurds and others in Iraq?
And the best part is the utter smack-down he (interviewer) recieves on all points. Bravo
A Kurdish province/state as part of a Federal Iraq... that's what I've been suggesting for awhile. I'm glad that someone who counts actually agrees with me.
Posted by: Geoff M on March 4, 2003 11:58 AMFor the longest time I've been thinking that what the Germans and the French are REALLY afraid of is that this whole Iraq adventure will turn out OK. That will reduce their importance in the world, deprive them of valuable oil contracts in Iraq and Iran (for the Germans) and consolidate what they fear most, "American hegemonism." It will also assure Bush's reelection instead of Howard Dean's election. (I understand that at the winter meeting of the Democratic National Committee Dean "just blew them away".)
Posted by: Mark Falcoff on March 4, 2003 12:29 PM"deprive them of valuable oil contracts in Iraq and Iran (for the Germans)"
huh?? What German oil company is investing there? Look at the CIA factbook:
Exports - partners:
US 46.2%, Italy 12.2%, France 9.6%, Spain 8.6% (2000) [oil]
I'd rather say it's the French who are anxious about that.
Posted by: hans ze beeman on March 5, 2003 05:18 AM