The New Israeli Government
Commentary from my father, Hebrew University political scientist Ira Sharkansky
I've already seen in the international press, and have heard from media commentators here, that the new government is too right wing to make peace with the Palestinians.
The new government is right wing. If a vote of ministers were held today, a majority would probably oppose the creation of a Palestinian state. But the problem of peace should not be laid at its door.
Public opinion surveys prior to the election showed the Israeli population was not bent on revenge. A majority favored the establishment of a Palestinian state. The polls are not clear, but I suspect that many of those favoring a Palestinian state would attach at least some of the conditions identified by Sharon: an end to violence; a serious reform of the Palestinian Authority; and an end to anti-Israel and anti-Semitic incitement in Palestinian media and education.
Sharon will not poll his ministers publicly on what they think of a Palestinian state. I doubt that any of them expect the Palestinian Authority to meet reasonable conditions anytime soon. Or perhaps anytime. Arafat's appointment of a prime minister beholden to him will not satisfy.
Bigger than Israeli or Palestinian intentions/actions is the looming war in Iraq. The onset of these things is easier to predict than the end-game. The range of scenarios is profound. Many of them are not pleasant for Iraq, Israel, the larger Middle East, or the United States. The "quartet" of US, Europe, Russia, and the UN, and its "road map" to peace in the Middle East will undergo more than a few strains and revisions in the coming weeks. Let's not waste time on speculating. We hope for the best, but in the meantime our gas kits are up to date, and we have plastic and tape to seal a room.
Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at February 27, 2003 08:48 AM
Sharon is constantly being underestimated. He's a pretty good military tactician if you look at his success on the battlefield in a variety of situations. I can't think of another political leader on the world stage that has his range of battlefield military experience.
I think/hope the new government is carefully crafted. Sharon obviously wanted Sharansky in the cabinet so they worked out a deal. Sharansky is as reasonable a man as their is on the planet. I like the idea of getting the NRP and Shinui to work out a deal. In a weird way I think this is a cohesive coalition. They are all center or right of center and have reasons for wanting to stay in the government. Shinui wants to have and impact and the NRP wants to both keep Shinui in check and keep a right wing gov't in place.